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Meteorological to Agricultural Drought Propagation Time Analysis and Driving Factors Recognition Considering Time-Variant Characteristics

Author

Listed:
  • Chengguo Wu

    (Hefei University of Technology
    Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology)

  • Yin Xu

    (Hefei University of Technology)

  • Juliang Jin

    (Hefei University of Technology
    Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology)

  • Yuliang Zhou

    (Hefei University of Technology
    Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology)

  • Boyu Nie

    (Hefei University of Technology)

  • Rui Li

    (Hefei University of Technology)

  • Yi Cui

    (Hefei University of Technology
    Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology)

  • Fei Tong

    (Hefei University of Technology)

  • Libing Zhang

    (Hefei University of Technology
    Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology)

Abstract

Drought propagation analysis is of great significance to develop reliable drought-resistant schemes. In this study, based on the construction of time-variant meteorological and agricultural drought indicators SPIt and SSMIt through Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) method, the static and dynamic drought propagation time were defined and determined by Five-element Subtraction Set Pair Potential (FSSPP) and Copula function methods. Then, the driving factors resulted in meteorological to agricultural drought propagation were recognized through Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) indicator. And finally, the application results of the proposed approach in Anhui province, China indicated that, (1) the static propagation time of meteorological to agricultural drought process varied within 1 to 4 months, and differed slightly in different seasons. And drought propagation time in spring and summer was noticeably longer than that of autumn and winter. (2) the dynamic drought propagation time presented decreasing trend in winter, spring and summer but displayed slight increasing trend in autumn in Anhui province. On the whole, the research findings are beneficial for theoretical and practical research of drought propagation system.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengguo Wu & Yin Xu & Juliang Jin & Yuliang Zhou & Boyu Nie & Rui Li & Yi Cui & Fei Tong & Libing Zhang, 2024. "Meteorological to Agricultural Drought Propagation Time Analysis and Driving Factors Recognition Considering Time-Variant Characteristics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(3), pages 991-1010, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03705-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03705-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    2. Stasinopoulos, D. Mikis & Rigby, Robert A., 2007. "Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 23(i07).
    3. Jagadish Padhiary & Kanhu Charan Patra & Sonam Sandeep Dash, 2022. "A Novel Approach to Identify the Characteristics of Drought under Future Climate Change Scenario," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5163-5189, October.
    4. G. P. Tsakiris & D. P. Loucks, 2023. "Adaptive Water Resources Management Under Climate Change: An Introduction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2221-2233, May.
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