IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v35y2021i10d10.1007_s11269-021-02865-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development of Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Model for Agricultural Water Supply and Distribution Systems Using Bayesian Network

Author

Listed:
  • Atiyeh Bozorgi

    (University of Tehran)

  • Abbas Roozbahani

    (University of Tehran)

  • Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany

    (University of Tehran)

  • Rouzbeh Abbassi

    (Macquarie University)

Abstract

To identify and assess the impact of various hazards threaten agriculture water supply systems, the development of a risk analysis framework is inevitable in promoting sustainable agricultural development. This study aims to develop a novel multi-hazard risk assessment model by applying a Hybrid Bayesian Network for agricultural water supply and distribution systems. This model consists of discrete and continuous nodes and their probable interactions. The structure of this model is designed to assess the risk associated with the agricultural water system's for supply and distribution sections separately considering various factors such as river discharge, the inflow of water distribution system and its fluctuation, and the demand of water. The developed model is applied to the Roodasht Irrigation district located in the center of Iran to demonestrate its capability. This Irrigation district is under the threat of drought, improper performance of the ditch-riders, and operational losses. The results showed that the model in both training and test datasets has proper accuracy and performance with the root mean square error of 0.069 and 0.076, coefficient of determinations equal to 0.717 and 0.690, and the overall index of model performance equal to 0.787 and 0.671, respectively. The results of this research and the proposed model will help stakeholders and decision-makers to be aware of the probable causes and the extent of system failure and its components due to the threatening hazards. Also, it will assist in planning the allocation of irrigation water based on predictable risk associated with various hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Atiyeh Bozorgi & Abbas Roozbahani & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany & Rouzbeh Abbassi, 2021. "Development of Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Model for Agricultural Water Supply and Distribution Systems Using Bayesian Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3139-3159, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02865-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02865-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-021-02865-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-021-02865-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bergmeir, Christoph & Hyndman, Rob J. & Koo, Bonsoo, 2018. "A note on the validity of cross-validation for evaluating autoregressive time series prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 70-83.
    2. Parisa Noorbeh & Abbas Roozbahani & Hamid Kardan Moghaddam, 2020. "Annual and Monthly Dam Inflow Prediction Using Bayesian Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2933-2951, July.
    3. Kamrani, Kazem & Roozbahani, Abbas & Hashemy Shahdany, Seied Mehdy, 2020. "Using Bayesian networks to evaluate how agricultural water distribution systems handle the water-food-energy nexus," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    4. Torres, Jacob M. & Brumbelow, Kelly & Guikema, Seth D., 2009. "Risk classification and uncertainty propagation for virtual water distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(8), pages 1259-1273.
    5. Saeedeh Abedzadeh & Abbas Roozbahani & Ali Heidari, 2020. "Risk Assessment of Water Resources Development Plans Using Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2549-2569, June.
    6. Abbas Roozbahani & Ebrahim Ebrahimi & Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib, 2018. "A Framework for Ground Water Management Based on Bayesian Network and MCDM Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 4985-5005, December.
    7. Morteza Babaei & Abbas Roozbahani & S. Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany, 2018. "Risk Assessment of Agricultural Water Conveyance and Delivery Systems by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 4079-4101, September.
    8. Kaghazchi, Afsaneh & Hashemy Shahdany, S. Mehdy & Roozbahani, Abbas, 2021. "Simulation and evaluation of agricultural water distribution and delivery systems with a Hybrid Bayesian network model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    9. Zohreh Sherafatpour & Abbas Roozbahani & Yousef Hasani, 2019. "Agricultural Water Allocation by Integration of Hydro-Economic Modeling with Bayesian Networks and Random Forest Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2277-2299, May.
    10. I. Nalbantis & G. Tsakiris, 2009. "Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 881-897, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fatemeh Bayat & Abbas Roozbahani & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany, 2022. "Performance Evaluation of Agricultural Surface Water Distribution Systems Based on Water-food-energy Nexus and Using AHP-Entropy-WASPAS Technique," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4697-4720, September.
    2. Irfan Ahmed Shaikh & Aimrun Wayayok & Munir Ahmed Mangrio & Ziyad Ali Alhussain & Farman Ali Chandio & Zaheer Ahmed Khan & Waseem Asghar Khan & Mogtaba Mohammed & Murtada K. Elbashir & Jamshaid Ul Rah, 2022. "Optimizing Approach of Water Allocation to Off-Takes During Reduced Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 891-913, February.
    3. Silvia Barbetta & Bianca Bonaccorsi & Stavroula Tsitsifli & Ivana Boljat & Papakonstantinou Argiris & Jasmina Lukač Reberski & Christian Massari & Emanuele Romano, 2022. "Assessment of Flooding Impact on Water Supply Systems: A Comprehensive Approach Based on DSS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5443-5459, November.
    4. Jamalnia, Aboozar & Gong, Yu & Govindan, Kannan & Bourlakis, Michael & Mangla, Sachin Kumar, 2023. "A decision support system for selection and risk management of sustainability governance approaches in multi-tier supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javad Shafiee Neyestanak & Abbas Roozbahani, 2021. "Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Urban Wastewater Reuse in Water Supply Alternatives Using Hybrid Bayesian Network Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 5049-5072, November.
    2. Habibeh Sharifi & Abbas Roozbahani & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany, 2021. "Evaluating the Performance of Agricultural Water Distribution Systems Using FIS, ANN and ANFIS Intelligent Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1797-1816, April.
    3. Afsaneh Kaghazchi & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany & Alireza Firoozfar, 2022. "Prioritization of agricultural water distribution operating systems based on the sustainable development indicators," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 23-40, February.
    4. Barkhordari, Soroush & Hashemy Shahdany, Seied Mehdy, 2021. "Developing a smart operating system for fairly distribution of irrigation water, based on social, economic, and environmental considerations," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    5. Fatemeh Bayat & Abbas Roozbahani & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany, 2022. "Performance Evaluation of Agricultural Surface Water Distribution Systems Based on Water-food-energy Nexus and Using AHP-Entropy-WASPAS Technique," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4697-4720, September.
    6. Karimi Avargani, Habib & Hashemy Shahdany, S. Mehdy & Hashemi Garmdareh, S. Ebrahim & Liaghat, Abdolmajid & Guan, Guanghua & Behzadi, Farhad & Milan, Sami Ghordoyee & Berndtsson, Ronny, 2023. "Operational loss estimation in irrigation canals by integrating hydraulic simulation and crop growth modeling," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    7. Jolfan, Mohsen Hosseini & Hashemy Shahdany, S. Mehdy & Javadi, Saman & Milan, Sami Ghordoyee & Neshat, Aminreza & Berndtsson, Ronny & Tork, Hamed, 2023. "Modernization in agricultural water distribution system for aquifer storage and recovery – A case study," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    8. Mao, Wei & Zhu, Yan & Huang, Shuang & Han, Xudong & Sun, Guanfang & Ye, Ming & Yang, Jinzhong, 2024. "Assessment of spatial and temporal seepage losses in large canal systems under current and future water-saving conditions: A case study in the Hetao Irrigation District, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    9. Kamrani, Kazem & Roozbahani, Abbas & Hashemy Shahdany, Seied Mehdy, 2020. "Using Bayesian networks to evaluate how agricultural water distribution systems handle the water-food-energy nexus," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    10. Seyed Mehdi Seyed Hoshiyar & Nader Pirmoradian & Afshin Ashrafzadeh & Atefeh Parvaresh Rizi, 2021. "Performance Assessment of a Water Delivery Canal to Improve Agricultural Water Distribution," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2487-2501, June.
    11. Avargani, Habib Karimi & Hashemy Shahdany, S. Mehdy & Kamrani, Kazem & Maestre, Jose, M. & Hashemi Garmdareh, S. Ebrahim & Liaghat, Abdolmajid, 2022. "Prioritization of surface water distribution in irrigation districts to mitigate crop yield reduction during water scarcity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    12. Parisa Noorbeh & Abbas Roozbahani & Hamid Kardan Moghaddam, 2020. "Annual and Monthly Dam Inflow Prediction Using Bayesian Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2933-2951, July.
    13. Kaghazchi, Afsaneh & Hashemy Shahdany, S. Mehdy & Roozbahani, Abbas, 2021. "Simulation and evaluation of agricultural water distribution and delivery systems with a Hybrid Bayesian network model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    14. Prabal Das & D. A. Sachindra & Kironmala Chanda, 2022. "Machine Learning-Based Rainfall Forecasting with Multiple Non-Linear Feature Selection Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6043-6071, December.
    15. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2023. "Forecasting rare earth stock prices with machine learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    16. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022. "How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
    17. Gary S. Anderson & Alena Audzeyeva, 2019. "A Coherent Framework for Predicting Emerging Market Credit Spreads with Support Vector Regression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi & Jaber Rahimi, 2014. "Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1045-1060, March.
    19. Tomáš Plíhal, 2021. "Scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and Forex volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1379-1397, December.
    20. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02865-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.