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Prediction of Timing of Watermain Failure Using Gene Expression Models

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed M. A. Sattar

    (Cairo University)

  • B. Gharabaghi

    (University of Guelph)

  • Edward A. McBean

    (University of Guelph)

Abstract

An innovative predictive equation characterizing watermain failure timing developed from datasets of historical failures in Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Ontario, Canada is described. Gene expression programming (GEP) is used to develop empirical relations between the time to failure and control variables including protection methods for three types of pipes, Cast Iron, Ductile Iron, and Asbestos Cement. The developed GEP model has a correlation coefficient of 0.68, and with the advantage for predicting not only the time to first break, but also subsequent breaks. The prediction uncertainties of the developed GEP were 38 % of the median value for time to next failure. A parametric analysis is performed for further verification of the developed GEP model showing the relation is simple, yet effectively forecasts watermain timing to first failure and subsequent failures. Simulated failure scenarios indicate a return to high failure rates if cement mortar lining and cathodic protection are not extended to all candidate pipes in the distribution system.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed M. A. Sattar & B. Gharabaghi & Edward A. McBean, 2016. "Prediction of Timing of Watermain Failure Using Gene Expression Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1635-1651, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1241-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1241-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Fan, Xudong & Wang, Xiaowei & Zhang, Xijin & ASCE Xiong (Bill) Yu, P.E.F., 2022. "Machine learning based water pipe failure prediction: The effects of engineering, geology, climate and socio-economic factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Gema Sakti Raspati & Stian Bruaset & Camillo Bosco & Lars Mushom & Birgitte Johannessen & Rita Ugarelli, 2022. "A Risk-Based Approach in Rehabilitation of Water Distribution Networks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Robles-Velasco, Alicia & Cortés, Pablo & Muñuzuri, Jesús & Onieva, Luis, 2020. "Prediction of pipe failures in water supply networks using logistic regression and support vector classification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
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