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Discretized and Continuous Target Fields for the Reservoir Release Rules During Floods

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  • Chih-Chiang Wei

Abstract

This paper employed two classical, popular decision-tree algorithms (C5.0 and CART), and traditional Regression to deal with reservoir operations regarding decision of the releases from a reservoir system during floods. The experiment site was in Shihmen Reservoir, located in northern Taiwan. In a typical single-peak typhoon, the rules derived include two operational stages, the stage before peakflow (Stage I) and the stage after peakflow (Stage II). This study collected 50 typhoons (1987–2009). Four cases are designed, that are discretized class labels (target fields) are run by C5.0 and CART (i.e., Cases 1 and 2, respectively), while numeric class labels are run by CART and Regression (i.e., Cases 3 and 4, respectively). The criteria of root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of efficiency (CE), and relative error of peak discharge (EQ p ) were used to evaluate the forecasts. Results showed that the decision trees are skillful in the prediction of reservoir releases in the studied site. Furthermore, it was found that CART regression trees with numeric targets are more appropriate and precise than C5.0 classification trees and Regression for the prediction of releases. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Chih-Chiang Wei, 2012. "Discretized and Continuous Target Fields for the Reservoir Release Rules During Floods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3457-3477, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:12:p:3457-3477
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0085-2
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    1. G. V. Kass, 1980. "An Exploratory Technique for Investigating Large Quantities of Categorical Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(2), pages 119-127, June.
    2. Andres Ticlavilca & Mac McKee, 2011. "Multivariate Bayesian Regression Approach to Forecast Releases from a System of Multiple Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 523-543, January.
    3. D. Nagesh Kumar & Falguni Baliarsingh & K. Srinivasa Raju, 2010. "Optimal Reservoir Operation for Flood Control Using Folded Dynamic Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(6), pages 1045-1064, April.
    4. Deepti Rani & Maria Moreira, 2010. "Simulation–Optimization Modeling: A Survey and Potential Application in Reservoir Systems Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(6), pages 1107-1138, April.
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