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Integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) Model for Optimal Release Policy

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  • Sabah Fayaed
  • Ahmed El-Shafie
  • Othman Jaafar

Abstract

Complexicity in reservoir operation poses serious challenges to water resources planners and managers. These challenges of water reservoir operation are illustrated using a simulation to aid the development of an optimal operation policy for dam and reservoir. To achieve this, a Comprehensive Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Artificial Neural Network (SDP-ANN) model were developed and tested at Sg. Langat Reservoir in Malaysia. The nonlinearity of the natural physical processes was a major problem in determining the simulation of the reservoir parameters (elevation, surface-area, storage). To overcome water shortages resulting from uncertainty, the SDP-ANN model was used to evaluate the input variable and the performance outcome of the Model were compared with the Stochastic Dynamic Programming integrated with auto-regression (SDP-AR) model. The objective function of the models was set to minimize the sum of squared deviation from the desired targeted supply. Comparison result on the performance between SDP-AR model policy with SDP-ANN model found that the SDP-ANN model is a reliable and resilience model with a lesser supply deficit. The study concludes that the SDP-ANN model performs better than the SDP-AR model in deriving an optimal operating policy for the reservoir. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Sabah Fayaed & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Jaafar, 2013. "Integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) Model for Optimal Release Policy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3679-3696, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:10:p:3679-3696
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0373-5
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    Cited by:

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    3. Asmadi Ahmad & Siti Fatin Mohd Razali & Zawawi Samba Mohamed & Ahmed El-shafie, 2016. "The Application of Artificial Bee Colony and Gravitational Search Algorithm in Reservoir Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(7), pages 2497-2516, May.
    4. Xiang Zeng & Tiesong Hu & Xuning Guo & Xinjie Li, 2014. "Water Transfer Triggering Mechanism for Multi-Reservoir Operation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer-Supply Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1293-1308, March.
    5. Mohsen Saadat & Keyvan Asghari, 2017. "Reliability Improved Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Reservoir Operation Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1795-1807, April.
    6. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Hui-Ting Hsu, 2016. "Suitability of ANN-Based Daily Streamflow Extension Models: a Case Study of Gaoping River Basin, Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1499-1513, March.
    7. Wang Zhang & Pan Liu & Xizhen Chen & Li Wang & Xueshan Ai & Maoyuan Feng & Dedi Liu & Yuanyuan Liu, 2016. "Optimal Operation of Multi-reservoir Systems Considering Time-lags of Flood Routing," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 523-540, January.
    8. Chang-ming Ji & Ting Zhou & Hai-tao Huang, 2014. "Operating Rules Derivation of Jinsha Reservoirs System with Parameter Calibrated Support Vector Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(9), pages 2435-2451, July.
    9. Mehdi Zomorodian & Sai Hin Lai & Mehran Homayounfar & Shaliza Ibrahim & Gareth Pender, 2017. "Development and application of coupled system dynamics and game theory: A dynamic water conflict resolution method," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-24, December.
    10. Ahmed El-Shafie & Amr El-Shafie & Muhammad Mukhlisin, 2014. "New Approach: Integrated Risk-Stochastic Dynamic Model for Dam and Reservoir Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2093-2107, June.
    11. Wang Zhang & Pan Liu & Xizhen Chen & Li Wang & Xueshan Ai & Maoyuan Feng & Dedi Liu & Yuanyuan Liu, 2016. "Optimal Operation of Multi-reservoir Systems Considering Time-lags of Flood Routing," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 523-540, January.
    12. Maritza Arganis-Juárez & Rosalva Mendoza-Ramírez & Ramón Domínguez-Mora & Alma Hernández-Ruiz & Moisés Berezowsky-Verduzco, 2013. "Influence of Guiding Curves in the Optimal Management of a Hydropower System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 4989-5001, December.

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