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Contrasting responses of spatiotemporal patterns of cropland to climate change in Northeast China

Author

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  • Ziyang Yu

    (Northeastern University
    Key Laboratory of Land Protection and Use, Department of Natural Resources of Liaoning Province)

  • Zhenzhen Li

    (Heilongjiang University)

  • Haoxuan Yang

    (Tongji University)

  • Yihao Wang

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Yang Cui
  • Guoping Lei

    (Northeastern University
    Key Laboratory of Land Protection and Use, Department of Natural Resources of Liaoning Province)

  • Shuai Ye

    (Natural Resources Administration of Pingdu City)

Abstract

Understanding the relationship between climate change and cropland spatiotemporal patterns is critical for developing government policy and assisting agriculture in adapting to future climate change. The land use dataset was used to extract the area of cropland expansion and contraction as well as to calculate the cropland landscape indices. The impacts of climatic factors on the spatiotemporal patterns of cropland were quantified for different time periods by Random Forest (RF) classification and regression models, and the accuracy of the models was used as the intensity of the influence of climatic factors on cropland change. The results revealed that the total cropland area has consistently increased by 17.74% in the last four decades. The Sanjiang Plain (SJP) and Songnen Plain (SNP), with high aggregation and a simple shape of cropland landscapes, were the main regions where the cropland area has increased. Cropland landscape aggregation was low in mountainous areas. Before 2000, the total cropland area expanded more (46,748 km2) in response to the pressure to ensure food security, whereas there was less cropland loss. The accuracy of the RF model during this period revealed that the changes in cropland spatiotemporal patterns were highly influenced by climatic factors. After 2000, the climate conditions gradually became warmer and wetter. The total area of cropland increased slightly (10,587 km2) under the influence of the contradictory relationships among economic development, food production and ecological conservation, and the conversion between cropland and natural landscape types was drastic. The impact of climatic factors on changes in cropland spatiotemporal patterns has declined. Our results suggest that the response of spatiotemporal pattern changes in cropland to climatic factors differs under different policy contexts in different periods. The findings are intended to aid in the balance of agricultural production and ecological conservation in Northeast China in the face of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziyang Yu & Zhenzhen Li & Haoxuan Yang & Yihao Wang & Yang Cui & Guoping Lei & Shuai Ye, 2023. "Contrasting responses of spatiotemporal patterns of cropland to climate change in Northeast China," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(5), pages 1197-1214, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:15:y:2023:i:5:d:10.1007_s12571-023-01379-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-023-01379-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chengrui Mao & Shanshan Feng & Canfang Zhou, 2025. "Cropland Loss Under Different Urban Expansion Patterns in China (1990–2020): Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Driving Factors, and Policy Implications," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, February.

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