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Forecast of the Long-Term Trajectory of the Potential GDP of Kazakhstan in the Context of the Global Energy Transition

Author

Listed:
  • S. N. Alpysbaeva

    (Economic Research Institute)

  • Sh. Zh. Shuneev

    (Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms, Republic of Kazakhstan)

  • A. A. Bakdolotov

    (Economic Research Institute)

  • K. S. Beisengazin

    (Economic Research Institute)

  • E. I. Tautenov

    (Economic Research Institute)

  • N. N. Zhanakova

    (Economic Research Institute)

Abstract

— The article presents a forecast of the potential GDP of Kazakhstan performed using a structural method based on a production function that establishes relationships between the factors of production, total factor productivity, and output. Forecast estimations of trends of the key factors of production and the total factor productivity that form the long-term trend of the potential GDP of the country in the context of the global energy transition are presented. The baseline scenario of a long-term forecast of the potential GDP of Kazakhstan for the period until 2050 as adjusted for the objective of decarbonization of the economy is developed. Approaches to economic policy that could “nudge” the potential GDP up are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • S. N. Alpysbaeva & Sh. Zh. Shuneev & A. A. Bakdolotov & K. S. Beisengazin & E. I. Tautenov & N. N. Zhanakova, 2022. "Forecast of the Long-Term Trajectory of the Potential GDP of Kazakhstan in the Context of the Global Energy Transition," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 561-570, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:33:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700722050033
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700722050033
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    1. Jan van Heerden & Reyer Gerlagh & James Blignaut & Mark Horridge & Sebastiaan Hess & Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Mabugu, 2006. "Searching for Triple Dividends in South Africa: Fighting CO2 Pollution and Poverty while Promoting Growth," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 113-142.
    2. B. N. Porfiriev, 2019. "The Low-Carbon Development Paradigm and Climate Change Risk Reduction Strategy for the Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 111-118, March.
    3. Бессонов В. А., 2004. "О Динамике Совокупной Факторной Производительности В Российской Переходной Экономике," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 8(4), pages 542-587.
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