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Just Energy Transition of South Africa in a Post-COVID Era

Author

Listed:
  • Heinrich R. Bohlmann

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Jessika A. Bohlmann

    (Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, Main Campus, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu

    (Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, Main Campus, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

  • Roula Inglesi-Lotz

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa)

Abstract

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have sparked global debate over how green economic recovery may and should be, and if the pandemic has accelerated the present energy transition while assuring a just transition for vulnerable populations such as unskilled workers and women. This study investigates the socioeconomic impact of South Africa’s planned green energy transition, with a focus on the Mpumalanga province—the country’s largest coal mining region with many coal-fired power plants. Using a regional-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the study analyses the economy-wide effects of different policy scenarios related to a changing electricity generation mix, investment financing costs, and international action against non-compliant industries, amongst others, with a specific focus on the vulnerable industries and population groups in Mpumalanga. Key results from the study highlights that (1) the structure of the Mpumalanga economy will be affected in the medium to long run regardless of the domestic transition path, (2) the Mpumalanga economy is indeed in danger of shrinking relative to the baseline, unless the Just Energy Transition (JET) is quickly and carefully managed, and (3) at a national level, at least, there is the strong possibility of a double dividend when greening the South African economy with overall economic growth and environmental outcomes expected to improve in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Heinrich R. Bohlmann & Jessika A. Bohlmann & Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2023. "Just Energy Transition of South Africa in a Post-COVID Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-28, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:14:p:10854-:d:1191302
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    2. Elizabeth Lousia Roos & J. Mark Horridge & Jan H. van Heerden & Philip D. Adams & Heinrich R. Bohlmann & Kgatedi Kenneth Kobe & Bokang Vumbukani‐Lepolesa, 2020. "National and Regional Impacts of an Increase in Value‐Added Tax: A CGE Analysis for South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(1), pages 90-120, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Malek Al-Chalabi, 2023. "Targeted and Tangential Effects—A Novel Framework for Energy Research and Practitioners," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-12, August.
    3. Richard Kwame Adom & Paul Mukoki & Nomhle Ngwenya & Mulala Danny Simatele, 2025. "Examining multifaceted constraints to just transitioning agenda in Africa: integrating sustainable social and economic perspectives into policy framework," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 639-667, December.
    4. Thokozile Mazibuko & Kayode Akindeji, 2025. "Hybrid Forecasting for Energy Consumption in South Africa: LSTM and XGBoost Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-25, August.

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