IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/scient/v124y2020i2d10.1007_s11192-020-03544-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Annus Mirabilis paper: years of peak productivity in scientific careers

Author

Listed:
  • Gad Yair

    (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

  • Keith Goldstein

    (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

Abstract

This paper defines the ‘miraculous year’ as the most productive year in academics’ scientific careers. It tests the hypothesis that annual productivity is unevenly distributed with a Lotka-like distribution at both individual and group levels. To gain generalizability, we model distributions of annual publication productivity in three independent mini studies. The studies include Israeli star scientists, highly cited physicists, and economists in an elite American university. The findings show that most scientists enjoy a peak annus mirabilis with a minority having a few such peaks. Academic age at which the annus mirabilis takes place gravitates towards the center of a career, especially amongst older scientists. The results support the hypothesis that scientific careers are punctuated by exceptionally productive years. We discuss how administrative constraints may affect levels of productivity. The paper opens up a new empirical domain for further empirical tests of career productivity and calls for policy discussions around the implications of the idea of the annus mirabilis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gad Yair & Keith Goldstein, 2020. "The Annus Mirabilis paper: years of peak productivity in scientific careers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(2), pages 887-902, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:124:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11192-020-03544-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-020-03544-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11192-020-03544-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11192-020-03544-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin F. Jones, 2010. "Age and Great Invention," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Joshua Angrist & Pierre Azoulay & Glenn Ellison & Ryan Hill & Susan Feng Lu, 2017. "Economic Research Evolves: Fields and Styles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 293-297, May.
    3. Monica Gaughan & Branco Ponomariov, 2008. "Faculty publication productivity, collaboration, and grants velocity: using curricula vitae to compare center-affiliated and unaffiliated scientists," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 103-110, June.
    4. Beaudry, Catherine & Allaoui, Sedki, 2012. "Impact of public and private research funding on scientific production: The case of nanotechnology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1589-1606.
    5. Nicolas Carayol & Mireille Matt, 2006. "Individual and Collective Determinants of Academic Scientists' Productivity," Post-Print hal-00279197, HAL.
    6. Garfield, Eugene, 2009. "From the science of science to Scientometrics visualizing the history of science with HistCite software," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 173-179.
    7. Gad Yair & Nofar Gueta & Nitza Davidovitch, 2017. "The law of limited excellence: publication productivity of Israel Prize laureates in the life and exact sciences," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 113(1), pages 299-311, October.
    8. Defazio, Daniela & Lockett, Andy & Wright, Mike, 2009. "Funding incentives, collaborative dynamics and scientific productivity: Evidence from the EU framework program," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 293-305, March.
    9. repec:nas:journl:v:115:y:2018:p:4887-4890 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Andrea Bonaccorsi & Luca Secondi, 2017. "The determinants of research performance in European universities: a large scale multilevel analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(3), pages 1147-1178, September.
    11. Abramo, Giovanni & D’Angelo, Andrea Ciriaco & Murgia, Gianluca, 2017. "The relationship among research productivity, research collaboration, and their determinants," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 1016-1030.
    12. J. Corey Miller & Keith H. Coble & Jayson L. Lusk, 2013. "Evaluating top faculty researchers and the incentives that motivate them," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 97(3), pages 519-533, December.
    13. Marek Kwiek, 2018. "High research productivity in vertically undifferentiated higher education systems: Who are the top performers?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(1), pages 415-462, April.
    14. Carayol, Nicolas & Matt, Mireille, 2006. "Individual and collective determinants of academic scientists' productivity," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 55-72, March.
    15. Fan Jiang & Niancai Liu, 2018. "The hierarchical status of international academic awards in social sciences," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(3), pages 2091-2115, December.
    16. Juntao Zheng & Niancai Liu, 2015. "Mapping of important international academic awards," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 104(3), pages 763-791, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boris Forthmann & Philipp Doebler, 2021. "Reliability of researcher capacity estimates and count data dispersion: a comparison of Poisson, negative binomial, and Conway-Maxwell-Poisson models," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(4), pages 3337-3354, April.
    2. Rojko, Katarina & Lužar, Borut, 2022. "Scientific performance across research disciplines: Trends and differences in the case of Slovenia," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Önder, Ali Sina & Schweitzer, Sascha & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Specialization, field distance, and quality in economists’ collaborations," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4).
    2. Belén Álvarez-Bornstein & Adrián A. Díaz-Faes & María Bordons, 2019. "What characterises funded biomedical research? Evidence from a basic and a clinical domain," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(2), pages 805-825, May.
    3. Mulyanto,, 2014. "Performance of Indonesian R&D institutions: Influence of type of institutions and their funding source on R&D productivity," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 148-160.
    4. Mehdi Rhaiem & Nabil Amara, 2020. "Determinants of research efficiency in Canadian business schools: evidence from scholar-level data," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(1), pages 53-99, October.
    5. Hamid Bouabid & Hind Achachi, 2022. "Size of science team at university and internal co-publications: science policy implications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(12), pages 6993-7013, December.
    6. Fan Jiang & Niancai Liu, 2018. "The hierarchical status of international academic awards in social sciences," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(3), pages 2091-2115, December.
    7. Ali Sina Önder & Sascha Schweitzer & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Field Distance and Quality in Economists’ Collaborations," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2021-04, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    8. Maki Kato & Asao Ando, 2013. "The relationship between research performance and international collaboration in chemistry," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 97(3), pages 535-553, December.
    9. Konstantin Fursov & Yana Roschina & Oksana Balmush, 2016. "Determinants of Research Productivity: An Individual-level Lens," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 44-56.
    10. A. Baccini & L. Barabesi & M. Cioni & C. Pisani, 2014. "Crossing the hurdle: the determinants of individual scientific performance," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 101(3), pages 2035-2062, December.
    11. Johann Jacob & Moktar Lamari, 2012. "Factors Influencing Research Performance in Higher Education: An Empirical Investigation," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(3), pages 40-49.
    12. Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F. & Fioravanti, Maria Clorinda S. & Bini, Luis Mauricio & Rangel, Thiago Fernando, 2016. "Drivers of academic performance in a Brazilian university under a government-restructuring program," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 151-161.
    13. Ashkan Ebadi & Andrea Schiffauerova, 2016. "How to boost scientific production? A statistical analysis of research funding and other influencing factors," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 106(3), pages 1093-1116, March.
    14. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Belingheri, Paola & Secondi, Luca, 2021. "The research productivity of universities. A multilevel and multidisciplinary analysis on European institutions," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2).
    15. Young-Hwan Lee, 2021. "Determinants of research productivity in Korean Universities: the role of research funding," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1462-1486, October.
    16. Alberto Baccini & Lucio Barabesi & Martina Cioni & Caterina Pisani, 2013. "Crossing the hurdle: the determinants of individual scientific performance," Department of Economics University of Siena 691, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    17. Mehdi Rhaiem, 2017. "Measurement and determinants of academic research efficiency: a systematic review of the evidence," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 110(2), pages 581-615, February.
    18. Nabil Amara & Réjean Landry & Norrin Halilem, 2015. "What can university administrators do to increase the publication and citation scores of their faculty members?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 103(2), pages 489-530, May.
    19. Sabrina J. Mayer & Justus M. K. Rathmann, 2018. "How does research productivity relate to gender? Analyzing gender differences for multiple publication dimensions," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(3), pages 1663-1693, December.
    20. Yann Kossi & Jean-Yves Lesueur & Mareva Sabatier, 2016. "Publish or teach? The role of the scientific environment on academics’ multitasking," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 25(3), pages 487-506.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:124:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11192-020-03544-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.