Agent-based decision-support model for bus route redesign in networks of small cities and towns: case study of Agder, Norway

Small cities and towns often struggle to provide high-quality public transport services to daily commuters. This is reflected in the modal split, where the share of car users dominates. Such a problem requires a modern solution, where transport planners can verify the impact of potential transport network improvements on the travel behavior of the residents before the changes are actually deployed. This study aims to demonstrate the usefulness of employing an agent-based simulation tool in the decision process for redesigning an express service regional bus route connecting a network of small cities and towns. The model was initially developed as a Mobility as a Service simulation solution for suburban areas of European metropolises. The model is adapted and applied to a case study for the region of Agder, Norway, simulating the impact of nine different scenarios on the patronage of a specific bus route. The simulation model proposes to upgrade the classic agent structure to a persona profile designed specifically for the case study. The main objective of this research is to identify the scenario that maximizes patronage while minimizing total route travel time and additional costs. The results suggest that the proposed model can be successfully adapted from suburban metropolitan areas to the realities of the considered case study, and potentially other similar regions. Specifically, out of the nine proposed scenarios, the model identified four promising ones. One of the four scenarios also fits the cost constraints imposed by the transport provider. The model provides a solid approach for analyzing complex transport systems that are practically impossible to consider in detail if the analysis is done without computer support. Thus, the results can be used as a decision support system for public transport planning and operations in networks of small cities and towns.