IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/portec/v17y2018i3d10.1007_s10258-018-0145-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Capital asset pricing model in Portugal: Evidence from fractal regressions

Author

Listed:
  • Ladislav Kristoufek

    (Czech Academy of Sciences)

  • Paulo Ferreira

    (VALORIZA - Research Center for Endogenous Resource Valorization
    Universidade de Évora, Largo dos Colegiais 2
    Instituto Politécnico de Portalegre)

Abstract

We examine risk profiles of the Portuguese stock market index component stocks using a novel approach to the classical capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Specifically, we estimate the CAPM via fractal regressions that allow studying the marginal effects at selected scales. In this way, we can reveal whether the risk is perceived differently by market participants with different investment horizons. Apart from the analysis itself, we provide new statistical insights into the issue of separating and comparing the scale-specific effects with statistical validity. We find several stocks deviating from an expected risk perception homogeneity across investment horizons. This is true for both analysed periods, i.e. before and after the global financial crisis. There are also several stocks that changed their relationship to the market portfolio in between, which has strong implications for possible portfolio construction. The proposed methodology is not limited to financial topics but can be used in any discipline where the scale-specific marginal effects might be of interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Ladislav Kristoufek & Paulo Ferreira, 2018. "Capital asset pricing model in Portugal: Evidence from fractal regressions," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(3), pages 173-183, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:17:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10258-018-0145-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-018-0145-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10258-018-0145-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10258-018-0145-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    2. Rui Alpalhao & Paulo Alves, 2005. "The Portuguese equity risk premium: what we know and what we don't know," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 489-498.
    3. He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Shu-Peng, 2011. "A new approach to quantify power-law cross-correlation and its application to commodity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3806-3814.
    4. Paulo Alves, 2013. "The Fama French Model or the Capital Asset Pricing Model: International Evidence," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(2), pages 79-89.
    5. Barunik, Jozef & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2010. "On Hurst exponent estimation under heavy-tailed distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3844-3855.
    6. Ferreira, Paulo & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2017. "What is new about covered interest parity condition in the European Union? Evidence from fractal cross-correlation regressions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 554-566.
    7. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2014. "Measuring correlations between non-stationary series with DCCA coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 402(C), pages 291-298.
    8. Will Mackay & Tariq Haque, 2016. "A Study of Industry Cost of Equity in Australia Using the Fama and French 5 Factor Model and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): A Pitch," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 618-623, September.
    9. Sergio Arianos & Anna Carbone, 2008. "Cross-correlation of long-range correlated series," Papers 0804.2064, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2009.
    10. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2014. "Detrending moving-average cross-correlation coefficient: Measuring cross-correlations between non-stationary series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 406(C), pages 169-175.
    11. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    12. Paulo Ferreira & Andreia Dion�sio, 2014. "Revisiting serial dependence in the stock markets of the G7 countries, Portugal, Spain and Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 319-331, March.
    13. Zebende, G.F., 2011. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient: Quantifying level of cross-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 614-618.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    15. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    16. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    17. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    18. Júlio Lobão & Marcos Azeredo, 2018. "Momentum meets value investing in a small European market," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(1), pages 45-58, March.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    20. Dusan Isakov, 1999. "Is beta still alive? Conclusive evidence from the Swiss stock market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 202-212.
    21. Guermat, Cherif, 2014. "Yes, the CAPM is testable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 31-42.
    22. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    23. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    24. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    25. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    26. Ibbotson, Roger G & Sinquefield, Rex A, 1976. "Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: Year-by-Year Historical Returns (1926-1974)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(1), pages 11-47, January.
    27. Tiziano Squartini & Assaf Almog & Guido Caldarelli & Iman van Lelyveld & Diego Garlaschelli & Giulio Cimini, 2016. "Enhanced capital-asset pricing model for the reconstruction of bipartite financial networks," Papers 1606.07684, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Göbel, 2021. "On Spurious Causality, CO 2 , and Global Temperature," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Barreto, Ikaro Daniel de Carvalho & Dore, Luiz Henrique & Stosic, Tatijana & Stosic, Borko D., 2021. "Extending DFA-based multiple linear regression inference: Application to acoustic impedance models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    3. Leonardo Badea & Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Iulian Panait & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "A Markov Regime Switching Approach towards Assessing Resilience of Romanian Collective Investment Undertakings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Tilfani, Oussama & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Ferreira, Paulo & El Boukfaoui, My Youssef, 2022. "Heterogeneity in economic relationships: Scale dependence through the multivariate fractal regression," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    2. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    3. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    4. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2018. "Fractality in market risk structure: Dow Jones Industrial components case," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 69-75.
    5. Jacek Lipiec, 2014. "Capital Asset Pricing Model Testing at Warsaw Stock Exchange: Are Family Businesses the Remedy for Economic Recessions?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2514 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    9. Attiya Yasmeen Javid, 2000. "Alternative Capital Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Theory and Evidence," PIDE Research Report 2000:3, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    10. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    11. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Rocciolo, Francesco & Gheno, Andrea & Brooks, Chris, 2022. "Explaining abnormal returns in stock markets: An alpha-neutral version of the CAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    13. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Joachim Freyberger & Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2020. "Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2326-2377.
    15. Şahin, Baki Cem & Danışoğlu, Seza, 2022. "Ambiguity and asset pricing: An empirical investigation for an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Asgar Ali & K. N. Badhani, 2021. "Beta-Anomaly: Evidence from the Indian Equity Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(1), pages 55-78, March.
    17. Kaserer Christoph & Hanauer Matthias X., 2017. "25 Jahre Fama-French-Modell: Erklärungsgehalt, Anomalien und praktische Implikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 98-116, June.
    18. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2003. "On the cross section of conditionally expected stock returns," Working Papers 2003-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3005 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    21. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    22. Ryan Bartens & Shakill Hassan, 2010. "Value, size and momentum portfolios in real time: the cross section of South African stocks," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 35(2), pages 181-202, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:17:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10258-018-0145-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.