IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v91y2018i2d10.1007_s11069-017-3149-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Selection of hazard-consistent hurricane scenarios for regional combined hurricane wind and flood loss estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Bin Pei

    (Aon Benfield)

  • Weichiang Pang

    (Clemson University)

  • Firat Y. Testik

    (University of Texas at San Antonio)

  • Nadarajah Ravichandran

    (Clemson University)

  • Fangqian Liu

    (Applied Research Associates)

Abstract

This paper presents a new methodology for selecting hazard-consistent hurricane scenarios (with similar return periods) for estimating the regional losses due to combined hurricane wind and flood. An in-house stochastic hurricane simulation program was used to simulate 50,000 years of full-track synthetic hurricanes. A wind field model along with a boundary layer model was utilized to compute the surface wind speeds. As illustrative examples, the SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model was employed to calculate the corresponding flood elevations for two loss estimation domains (Charleston Peninsula, South Carolina and Miami Beach, Florida) with each of them divided into census blocks. The peak wind speeds and maximum flood elevations at the centroids of respective census blocks were utilized to determine the joint mean recurrence intervals (MRIs) of individual hurricane events. For regional loss estimation purpose, the joint MRIs of hurricanes were weighted by the population of every census block. A hurricane selection procedure was developed to select hazard-consistent hurricane scenarios with a joint MRI of 100 years. Three hurricane ensembles, selected based on only wind speeds, only flood elevations, and joint wind speeds and flood elevations, were imported into the HAZUS-MH (Hazards US Multi-Hazards) program to perform combined wind and flood loss estimations. The results indicate that hurricane selection using either only wind speeds or only flood elevations can overestimate the combined losses. The different characteristics of the selected hurricane scenarios for the two loss estimation domains are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Pei & Weichiang Pang & Firat Y. Testik & Nadarajah Ravichandran & Fangqian Liu, 2018. "Selection of hazard-consistent hurricane scenarios for regional combined hurricane wind and flood loss estimation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 671-696, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:91:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3149-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3149-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-017-3149-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-017-3149-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bin Pei & Weichiang Pang & Firat Testik & Nadarajah Ravichandran & Fangqian Liu, 2014. "Mapping joint hurricane wind and surge hazards for Charleston, South Carolina," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 375-403, November.
    2. Adam Smith & Richard Katz, 2013. "US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: data sources, trends, accuracy and biases," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 387-410, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vera Wendler-Bosco & Charles Nicholson, 2022. "Modeling the economic impact of incoming tropical cyclones using machine learning," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(1), pages 487-518, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hyunwoo Kang & Venkataramana Sridhar, 2018. "Improved Drought Prediction Using Near Real-Time Climate Forecasts and Simulated Hydrologic Conditions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-29, May.
    2. Jenni Dinger & Michael Conger & David Hekman & Carla Bustamante, 2020. "Somebody That I Used to Know: The Immediate and Long-Term Effects of Social Identity in Post-disaster Business Communities," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 115-141, September.
    3. Christopher T. Emrich & Yao Zhou & Sanam K. Aksha & Herbert E. Longenecker, 2022. "Creating a Nationwide Composite Hazard Index Using Empirically Based Threat Assessment Approaches Applied to Open Geospatial Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-25, February.
    4. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damage," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Streeter, M. & Rhode-Barbarigos, L. & Adriaenssens, S., 2015. "Form finding and analysis of inflatable dams using dynamic relaxation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 267(C), pages 742-749.
    6. Joshua M. Pearce & Richard Parncutt, 2023. "Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Ahmadiani, Mona & Ferreira, Susana, 2021. "Well-being effects of extreme weather events in the United States," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. F. Letson & R. J. Barthelmie & W. Hu & L. D. Brown & S. C. Pryor, 2019. "Wind gust quantification using seismic measurements," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(1), pages 355-377, October.
    9. Farhan Ali & Shaoan Huang & Roland Cheo, 2020. "Climatic Impacts on Basic Human Needs in the United States of America: A Panel Data Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Xavier Romão & Esmeralda Paupério, 2016. "A framework to assess quality and uncertainty in disaster loss data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 1077-1102, September.
    11. Olen, Beau & Wu, JunJie, 2015. "Impacts of Water Scarcity and Climate on Land Use for Irrigated Agriculture in the U.S. West Coast," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205719, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Tudose, Nicu Constantin & Cheval, Sorin & Ungurean, Cezar & Broekman, Annelies & Sanchez-Plaza, Anabel & Cremades, Roger & Mitter, Hermine & Kropf, Bernadette & Davidescu, Serban Octavian & Dinca, Luc, 2022. "Climate services for sustainable resource management: The water—energy—land nexus in the Tărlung river basin (Romania)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    13. Jing Gao & Melissa S. Bukovsky, 2023. "Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. Brian Sliker & Leonard Nakamura, 2023. "The Increasing Pace of Weather-Related Cost Shocks: Should Net Domestic Product be Affected by Climate Disasters?," BEA Papers 0123, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    15. De Juan Fernández, Aránzazu & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2022. "Economic activity and climate change," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 35044, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. U. Surendran & B. Anagha & P. Raja & V. Kumar & K. Rajan & M. Jayakumar, 2019. "Analysis of Drought from Humid, Semi-Arid and Arid Regions of India Using DrinC Model with Different Drought Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1521-1540, March.
    17. Ricardo Correa & Ai He & Christoph Herpfer & Ugur Lel, 2022. "The rising tide lifts some interest rates: climate change, natural disasters, and loan pricing," International Finance Discussion Papers 1345, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Conte, Marc N. & Kelly, David L., 2018. "An imperfect storm: Fat-tailed tropical cyclone damages, insurance, and climate policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 677-706.
    19. Amine Ouazad & Matthew E Kahn, 2022. "Mortgage Finance and Climate Change: Securitization Dynamics in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3617-3665.
    20. Bourdeau-Brien, Michael & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2017. "The impact of natural disasters on the stock returns and volatilities of local firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 259-270.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:91:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3149-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.