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Urban heat islands in Hong Kong: statistical modeling and trend detection

Author

Listed:
  • Weiwen Wang

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Wen Zhou

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Edward Yan Yung Ng

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong
    The Chinese University of Hong Kong
    The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Yong Xu

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Urban heat islands (UHIs), usually defined as temperature differences between urban areas and their surrounding rural areas, are one of the most significant anthropogenic modifications to the Earth’s climate. This study applies the extreme value theory to model and detect trends in extreme UHI events in Hong Kong, which have rarely been documented. Extreme UHI events are defined as UHIs with intensity higher than a specific threshold, 4.8 for summer and 7.8 °C for winter. Statistical modeling based on extreme value theory is found to permit realistic modeling of these extreme events. Trends of extreme UHI intensity, frequency, and duration are introduced through changes in parameters of generalized Pareto, Poisson, and geometric distributions, respectively. During the 27-year study period, none of the quantities in winter analyzed in this study increased significantly. The annual mean summertime daily maximum UHI intensities, which are samples from a Gaussian distribution, show an increasing but nonsignificant linear trend. However, the intensity of extreme UHI events in summer is increasing significantly, which implies that the risk of mortality and heat-related diseases due to heat stress at night (when the daily maximum UHI occurs) in summer is also increasing. The warming climate has threatened and will continue to threaten inhabitants of this subtropical high-density city. Strategies for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, such as adding greenery and planning a city with good natural ventilation, are needed.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiwen Wang & Wen Zhou & Edward Yan Yung Ng & Yong Xu, 2016. "Urban heat islands in Hong Kong: statistical modeling and trend detection," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 885-907, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:83:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2353-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2353-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pui Hing Chau & Paul Siu Fai Yip & Eric Ho Yin Lau & Yee Ting Ip & Frances Yik Wa Law & Rainbow Tin Hung Ho & Angela Yee Man Leung & Janet Yuen Ha Wong & Jean Woo, 2020. "Hot Weather and Suicide Deaths among Older Adults in Hong Kong, 1976–2014: A Retrospective Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Shi, Luyang & Luo, Zhiwen & Matthews, Wendy & Wang, Zixuan & Li, Yuguo & Liu, Jing, 2019. "Impacts of urban microclimate on summertime sensible and latent energy demand for cooling in residential buildings of Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

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