Urban Thermal Regulation Through Cold Island Network Evolution: Patterns, Drivers, and Scenario-Based Planning Insights from Southwest China

With the dual pressures of accelerating urbanization and global climate warming, understanding the evolution and connectivity of cold island networks has become crucial for managing urban thermal risks. This study explores the spatiotemporal dynamics, driving mechanisms, and scenario-based projections of cold island networks in a rapidly urbanizing region of Southwest China. Using multi-temporal Landsat imagery (2000–2024), ecological resistance surface modeling, and least-cost path analysis, the study evaluated historical changes and simulated future scenarios for 2035 and 2050 under both Natural Development (ND) and Park City (PC) planning interventions. The findings reveal that: (1) Between 2000 and 2024, rapid urbanization significantly expanded high-temperature areas, fragmented cooling sources, and reshaped cold island connectivity into a hierarchical corridor network centered on a dominant ventilation axis; (2) Since 2019, ecological restoration measures have notably enhanced the structural cohesion and connectivity of cooling corridors, partially mitigating previous fragmentation; (3) Scenario simulations indicate that proactive ecological planning could reduce the extent of high-temperature zones by approximately 20% by 2050, demonstrating strong potential for mitigating future thermal risks. Overall, the results emphasize the necessity of incorporating continuous cold island corridors and connectivity principles into urban spatial planning to enhance climate resilience and support sustainable development.