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A dual effect of urban expansion on flood risk in the Pearl River Delta (China) revealed by land-use scenarios and direct runoff simulation

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  • Shiqiang Du
  • Anton Van Rompaey
  • Peijun Shi
  • Jing’ai Wang

Abstract

Since the late 1970s, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China has undergone a rapid transition from an agricultural landscape to a metropolitan area. The rapid urbanization has not only increased the area of impervious surfaces in the central plain; it has displaced farmland to the hilly peripheral areas. The objectives of this study are to: (1) analyze how these changes in land use in the PRD have influenced flood incidence over the past 20 years and (2) explore possible changes in flood incidence in the coming two decades. An integrated simulation of the land-use changes and the hydrological processes is employed to investigate the impact of urbanization on the volume of direct runoff. Historical flood records are used for validation. The simulation results indicate that land-use change in the PRD has markedly increased direct runoff over the past two decades. Changes in direct runoff generation and in land use are significantly correlated with historical floods at the county level. These results suggest that the increase in floods stems from the dual effect of urbanization on land use through the expansion of impervious surfaces and the displacement of farmlands to the hilly outskirts. The simulations suggest that the dual effect would continue in a future of business as usual. Stopping farmland replacement would likely reduce the increase in direct runoff generation, and this reduction would be augmented if changes in farmland replacement were combined with compact city development. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Shiqiang Du & Anton Van Rompaey & Peijun Shi & Jing’ai Wang, 2015. "A dual effect of urban expansion on flood risk in the Pearl River Delta (China) revealed by land-use scenarios and direct runoff simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 111-128, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:1:p:111-128
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1583-8
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    5. David O. Baloye. & Lobina G. Palamuleni, 2015. "A Comparative Land Use-Based Analysis of Noise Pollution Levels in Selected Urban Centers of Nigeria," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Kim, Seokhyeon & Hwang, Soonho & Song, Jung-Hun & Lee, Hyunji & Kang, Moon-Seong, 2023. "Impact of irrigation reservoirs on budget of the watershed-scale water cycle under climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    7. Chunlin Li & Miao Liu & Yuanman Hu & Tuo Shi & Min Zong & M. Todd Walter, 2018. "Assessing the Impact of Urbanization on Direct Runoff Using Improved Composite CN Method in a Large Urban Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Jiayang Zhang & Yangbo Chen, 2019. "Risk Assessment of Flood Disaster Induced by Typhoon Rainstorms in Guangdong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, May.
    9. Meixiu Yu & Qiongfang Li & Xiaolong Liu & Jianyun Zhang, 2016. "Quantifying the effect on flood regime of land-use pattern changes via hydrological simulation in the upper Huaihe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 2279-2297, December.
    10. Hao Chen & Zongxue Xu & Yang Liu & Yixuan Huang & Fang Yang, 2022. "Urban Flood Risk Assessment Based on Dynamic Population Distribution and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Jean Nsabimana & Sabine Henry & Aloys Ndayisenga & Désiré Kubwimana & Olivier Dewitte & François Kervyn & Caroline Michellier, 2023. "Geo-Hydrological Hazard Impacts, Vulnerability and Perception in Bujumbura (Burundi): A High-Resolution Field-Based Assessment in a Sprawling City," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-26, October.
    12. Bakhtiar Osman Khzr & Gaylan Rasul Faqe Ibrahim & Ariean Ali Hamid & Shwan Ahmad Ail, 2022. "Runoff estimation using SCS-CN and GIS techniques in the Sulaymaniyah sub-basin of the Kurdistan region of Iraq," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 2640-2655, February.
    13. Ewelina Janicka & Jolanta Kanclerz & Tropikë Agaj & Katarzyna Gizińska, 2023. "Comparison of Two Hydrological Models, the HEC-HMS and Nash Models, for Runoff Estimation in Michałówka River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-15, May.

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