Comparison of Two Hydrological Models, the HEC-HMS and Nash Models, for Runoff Estimation in Michałówka River

Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters in small suburban catchments. These phenomena, causing loss of life and massive property damage, pose a serious threat to the economy. Hydrological modeling is extremely important in terms of climate change, and the use of appropriate modeling can be a useful tool for flood risk prevention and mitigation. Rainfall–runoff modeling requires the selection of an appropriate hydrological model in order to obtain satisfactory results. Hydrological models are used in water resource planning and management to estimate catchment runoff. Small uncontrolled catchments play a particularly important role in hydrological phenomena, since changes in them affect flows in the recipient. Hydrologists are particularly interested in developing hydrological models that can be made with a minimum of data and parameters. Nash models and the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) are examples of simple and most practical hydrologic models. These models were used in this paper to study geographic and qualitative changes in precipitation runoff due to land cover changes. The modeling was carried out for two spatial aspects relating to the years 1940 and 2018. The model allowed for the simulation of the river flow that can occur under different rainfall probabilities. The analysis of the results was used to evaluate the hydrological models used. The hundred-year flow modeled with the Nash model for 1940 was 13.4 m 3 ∙s −1 , whereas the second model gave slightly lower flow values. In addition, modeling the flow for 2018 (after changing the land cover) highlighted the increase in the flow value for both models, where again the flow volume was slightly higher for the Nash model and amounted to about 19 m 3 ∙s −1 . The flow differences for individual models were not too large. This made it possible to conclude that the simulated outflow hydrographs are in good agreement, and this means that the models accurately reproduce the flow of the Michałówka River. The study showed that rapid urbanization adversely affects hydrological processes. In addition, the study showed that a well-distributed model can outperform a global flood forecasting model, especially in terms of magnitude, as in the current study example.