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Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Dolif
  • Andre Engelbrecht
  • Alessandro Jatobá
  • Antônio da Silva
  • José Gomes
  • Marcos Borges
  • Carlos Nobre
  • Paulo Carvalho

Abstract

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Dolif & Andre Engelbrecht & Alessandro Jatobá & Antônio da Silva & José Gomes & Marcos Borges & Carlos Nobre & Paulo Carvalho, 2013. "Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1831-1847, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:65:y:2013:i:3:p:1831-1847
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0448-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sajjad Ahmad & Slobodan Simonovic, 2006. "An Intelligent Decision Support System for Management of Floods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(3), pages 391-410, June.
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    4. Alexandre Badoux & Christoph Graf & Jakob Rhyner & Richard Kuntner & Brian McArdell, 2009. "A debris-flow alarm system for the Alpine Illgraben catchment: design and performance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(3), pages 517-539, June.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Shuangling Wang & Wanshun Zhang & Fajin Chen, 2019. "Simulation of Drainage Capacity in a Coastal Nuclear Power Plant under Extreme Rainfall and Tropical Storm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, January.

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