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The verification of wildland–urban interface fire evacuation models

Author

Listed:
  • E. Ronchi

    (Lund University)

  • J. Wahlqvist

    (Lund University)

  • A. Ardinge

    (Lund University)

  • A. Rohaert

    (Lund University)

  • S. M. V. Gwynne

    (Lund University
    Movement Strategies)

  • G. Rein

    (Imperial College London)

  • H. Mitchell

    (Imperial College London)

  • N. Kalogeropoulos

    (Imperial College London)

  • M. Kinateder

    (National Research Council)

  • N. Bénichou

    (National Research Council)

  • E. Kuligowski

    (Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology)

  • A. Kimball

    (Fire Protection Research Foundation)

Abstract

This paper introduces a protocol for the verification of multi-physics wildfire evacuation models, including a set of tests used to ensure that the conceptual modelling representation of each modelling layer is accurately implemented, as well as the interactions between different modelling layers and sub-models (wildfire spread, pedestrian movement, traffic evacuation, and trigger buffers). This work presents a total of 24 verification tests, including (1) 4 tests related to pedestrians, (2) 15 tests for traffic evacuation, (3) 5 tests concerning the interaction between different modelling layers, along with 5 tests for wildfire spread and trigger buffers. The evacuation tests are organized in accordance with different core components related to evacuation modelling, namely Population, Pre-evacuation, Movement, Route/destination selection, Flow constraints, Events, Wildfire spread and Trigger buffers. A reporting template has also been developed to facilitate the application of the verification testing protocol. An example application of the testing protocol has been performed using an open wildfire evacuation modelling platform called WUI-NITY and its associated trigger buffer model k-PERIL. The verification testing protocol is deemed to improve the credibility of wildfire evacuation model results and stimulate future modelling efforts in this domain.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Ronchi & J. Wahlqvist & A. Ardinge & A. Rohaert & S. M. V. Gwynne & G. Rein & H. Mitchell & N. Kalogeropoulos & M. Kinateder & N. Bénichou & E. Kuligowski & A. Kimball, 2023. "The verification of wildland–urban interface fire evacuation models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1493-1519, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05913-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05913-2
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    4. Tian, Junfang & Treiber, Martin & Ma, Shoufeng & Jia, Bin & Zhang, Wenyi, 2015. "Microscopic driving theory with oscillatory congested states: Model and empirical verification," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 138-157.
    5. Philip E. Dennison & Thomas J. Cova & Max A. Mortiz, 2007. "WUIVAC: a wildland-urban interface evacuation trigger model applied in strategic wildfire scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(1), pages 181-199, April.
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