IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v116y2023i2d10.1007_s11069-022-05774-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Changes in reliability–resilience–vulnerability-based watershed health under climate change scenarios in the Efin Watershed, Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Reza Chamani

    (Tarbiat Modares University)

  • Mehdi Vafakhah

    (Tarbiat Modares University)

  • Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi

    (Tarbiat Modares University)

Abstract

Numerous factors, such as the occurrence of climate change and severe droughts, affect the ability of watersheds to provide their expected services. However, the changeability of the watershed health under climate change has not adequately considered. Accordingly, the Reliability (Rel), Resilience (Res), and Vulnerability (Vul) of the Efin Watershed to drought due to climate change have been evaluated in the present study. To this end, the current climatic data of three rainfall stations for the period of 2006–2020 and the rainfall data of the two climatic scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 of the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) related to the report five of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the period of 2027–2055 were used. The rainfall data were initially extracted and then, downscaled using the data modification method of the mentioned scenarios and based on the Inverse Weighted Distance (IDW) method at the sub-watershed scale. Drought characteristics in the study area were then determined using the monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Rel, Res, and Vul indices were then calculated employing the geometric mean for different sub-watersheds in the base and future periods. The results showed that rainfall under climate change scenarios RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 from 2027 through 2055 would increase by 31.74 and 29.79%, respectively. Mean Rel, Res, and Vul indices in the base period were estimated at 0.73, 0.52, and 0.34, which would change to 0.73, 0.56, and 0.29 under RCP4.5 and 0.74, 0.53, and 0.27 under RCP8.5. It was further found that the overall watershed health index would decrease from 0.46 to 0.42 under the RCP4.5 climate scenario and 0.43 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario. The present findings would help watershed managers and decision-makers adopt necessary managerial measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Reza Chamani & Mehdi Vafakhah & Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi, 2023. "Changes in reliability–resilience–vulnerability-based watershed health under climate change scenarios in the Efin Watershed, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2457-2476, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05774-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05774-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05774-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-022-05774-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mosaffaie, Jamal & Salehpour Jam, Amin & Tabatabaei, Mahmoud Reza & Kousari, Mahammad Reza, 2021. "Trend assessment of the watershed health based on DPSIR framework," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amin Salehpour Jam & Jamal Mosaffaie & Faramarz Sarfaraz & Samad Shadfar & Rouhangiz Akhtari, 2021. "GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using hybrid MCDM models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1025-1046, August.
    2. Zhijun Li & Yigang Wei & Yan Li & Zhicheng Wang & Jinming Zhang, 2020. "China’s Provincial Eco-Efficiency and Its Driving Factors—Based on Network DEA and PLS-SEM Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-31, November.
    3. Ziyang Wang & Peiji Shi & Xuebin Zhang & Huali Tong & Weiping Zhang & Yue Liu, 2021. "Research on Landscape Pattern Construction and Ecological Restoration of Jiuquan City Based on Ecological Security Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    4. Zahra Ebrahimi Gatgash & Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi, 2023. "Prioritization-based management of the watershed using health assessment analysis at sub-watershed scale," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 9673-9702, September.
    5. Xuebin Zhang & Ziyang Wang & Yue Liu & Jing Shi & Hucheng Du, 2023. "Ecological Security Assessment and Territory Spatial Restoration and Management of Inland River Basin—Based on the Perspective of Production–Living–Ecological Space," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Peng Tian & Luodan Cao & Jialin Li & Ruiliang Pu & Yongchao Liu & Haitao Zhang & Caiyi Wang, 2022. "Ecosystem Stability Assessment of Yancheng Coastal Wetlands, a World Natural Heritage Site," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, April.
    7. Ebrahim Karimi Sangchini & Amin Salehpour Jam & Jamal Mosaffaie, 2022. "Flood risk management in Khorramabad watershed using the DPSIR framework," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 3101-3121, December.
    8. Iván López & Rodrigo Suarez & Mercedes Pardo, 2022. "A System of Indicators for Socio-Economic Evaluation and Monitoring of Global Change: An Approach Based on the Picos de Europa National Park," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, May.
    9. Junwu Wang & Yipeng Liu & Mingyang Liu & Suikuan Wang & Jiaji Zhang & Han Wu, 2022. "Multi-Phase Environmental Impact Assessment of Marine Ecological Restoration Project Based on DPSIR-Cloud Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-22, October.
    10. Moss, Ellen D. & Evans, Darren M. & Atkins, Jonathan P., 2021. "Investigating the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in UK agro-ecosystems: An application of the DPSIR framework," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Wenjun Jiao & Zhounan Yu & Yehong Sun & Yang Liu, 2023. "An Analytical Framework for Formulating Conservation and Development Measures for Important Agricultural Heritage Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-19, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05774-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.