Emergency risk assessment of sudden water pollution in South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China based on driving force–pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) model and variable fuzzy set

Sudden water pollution incidents have the characteristics of random uncertainty, a large influence range and long duration, which can cause serious social and economic losses. China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project has a long span from north to south, many water quality risk factors along the route and a complex dispatching control process. Therefore, this study established an emergency risk assessment model for water pollution emergencies in the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The risk assessment index system was established by using the analytic hierarchy process and driving force–pressure–state–impact–response framework model. The risk assessment model was constructed based on the variable fuzzy theory, and the risk grade criterion was determined. Taking the Huai'an section of the east line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Jiangsu Province as a case study, this paper took a traffic accident involving chemical vehicles as a typical scenario for an empirical study to verify the rationality of the index classification system and risk assessment model. Finally, emergency risk management countermeasures were proposed from each stage of the life cycle of sudden water pollution events.