IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v116y2023i2d10.1007_s11069-022-05750-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Seismic risk assessment for the infrastructure in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur Mainline based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

Author

Listed:
  • Anastasiya Nekrasova

    (Russian Academy of Sciences (IEPT RAS)
    Russian Academy of Sciences (IPE RAS))

  • Vladimir Kossobokov

    (Russian Academy of Sciences (IEPT RAS)
    International Seismic Safety Organisation (ISSO))

Abstract

The purpose of the analysis is to assess the risk of loss in performance of infrastructure facilities in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur and Trans-Siberian Mainlines due to seismic events of maximum macroseismic intensity expected in a period of 50 years with a probability of 10%, 5% and 1%. In particular, we use earthquake data compiled at the Baikal Division of the Russian Geophysical Survey, which provides sufficiently complete earthquake determinations of M = 2.5 or larger events for the period 1994–2019 for a reliable mapping the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes coefficients at the seismically active cells of a regular grid. Based on these estimates, we present maps of the maximum expected magnitude in about 500, 1000 and 5000 years. Having described an anisotropic seismic effect model of seismic sites in the region, we conclude by characterizing the seismic hazard in traditional terms of macroseismic intensity and by estimating the associated seismic risk to selected infrastructures, i.e. Baikal–Amur Mainline and Trans-Siberian Railway.

Suggested Citation

  • Anastasiya Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2023. "Seismic risk assessment for the infrastructure in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur Mainline based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 1995-2010, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05750-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05750-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05750-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-022-05750-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Max Wyss & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2012. "Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(3), pages 927-935, July.
    2. Imtiyaz Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2014. "Estimation of seismic hazard and risks for the Himalayas and surrounding regions based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 549-562, March.
    3. Xiao‐Bing Hu & Hang Li & XiaoMei Guo & Pieter H. A. J. M. van Gelder & Peijun Shi, 2019. "Spatial Vulnerability of Network Systems under Spatially Local Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 162-179, January.
    4. E. E. Koks & J. Rozenberg & C. Zorn & M. Tariverdi & M. Vousdoukas & S. A. Fraser & J. W. Hall & S. Hallegatte, 2019. "A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Imtiyaz A. Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2018. "Seismic hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: thirteen principal urban agglomerations of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1509-1522, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vladimir G. Kossobokov & Anastasia K. Nekrasova, 2018. "Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on unified scaling law for earthquakes: Altai–Sayan Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1435-1449, September.
    2. Imtiyaz A. Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2018. "Seismic hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: thirteen principal urban agglomerations of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1509-1522, July.
    3. Lena I. Fuldauer & Scott Thacker & Robyn A. Haggis & Francesco Fuso-Nerini & Robert J. Nicholls & Jim W. Hall, 2022. "Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Liang Jia & Saini Yang & Weiping Wang & Xinlong Zhang, 2022. "Impact analysis of highways in China under future extreme precipitation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1097-1113, January.
    5. Christos Nicolaides & Demetris Avraam & Luis Cueto‐Felgueroso & Marta C. González & Ruben Juanes, 2020. "Hand‐Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 723-740, April.
    6. Liu, Huan & Tatano, Hirokazu & Pflug, Georg & Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, 2021. "Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    7. V. Pavlenko, 2015. "Effect of alternative distributions of ground motion variability on results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1917-1930, September.
    8. Mühlhofer, Evelyn & Koks, Elco E. & Kropf, Chahan M. & Sansavini, Giovanni & Bresch, David N., 2023. "A generalized natural hazard risk modelling framework for infrastructure failure cascades," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    9. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Bozzola, Martina & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2020. "Impacts of Climate Change on Global Agri-Food Trade," 2019: Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis, December 8-10, 2019, Washington, DC 339375, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    10. Hemchandra Chaulagain & Hugo Rodrigues & Vitor Silva & Enrico Spacone & Humberto Varum, 2015. "Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 583-602, August.
    11. Jasper Verschuur & Raghav Pant & Elco Koks & Jim Hall, 2022. "A systemic risk framework to improve the resilience of port and supply-chain networks to natural hazards," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(3), pages 489-506, September.
    12. Manfred Lenzen & Mengyu Li & Arunima Malik & Francesco Pomponi & Ya-Yen Sun & Thomas Wiedmann & Futu Faturay & Jacob Fry & Blanca Gallego & Arne Geschke & Jorge Gómez-Paredes & Keiichiro Kanemoto & St, 2020. "Global socio-economic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-13, July.
    13. Jian Zhang & Shuai Ling & Ping Wang & Xiaoyang Hu & Lu Liu, 2021. "Method for Fast Map Construction Based on GPS Data and Compressed Grid Algorithm," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Ding, Tao & Liang, Liang & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Min & Wei, Yuqi, 2020. "Water-energy nexus: The origin, development and prospect," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 419(C).
    15. Li, Tao & Rong, Lili & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Assessing regional risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan via high-speed rail," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 226-238.
    16. Max Wyss & Philippe Rosset, 2013. "Mapping seismic risk: the current crisis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(1), pages 49-52, August.
    17. Argyroudis, Sotirios A. & Mitoulis, Stergios Aristoteles, 2021. "Vulnerability of bridges to individual and multiple hazards- floods and earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    18. Bertinelli, Luisito & Mahé, Clotilde & Strobl, Eric, 2023. "Earthquakes and mental health," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    19. A. Nekrasova & V. Kossobokov & A. Peresan & A. Magrin, 2014. "The comparison of the NDSHA, PSHA seismic hazard maps and real seismicity for the Italian territory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 629-641, January.
    20. Li, Tao & Rong, Lili, 2022. "Spatiotemporally complementary effect of high-speed rail network on robustness of aviation network," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 95-114.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05750-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.