Monitoring and projection of climate change impact on 24-h probable maximum precipitation in the Southeast of Caspian Sea

Due to the impacts of climate change on probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and its importance in designing hydraulic structures, PMP estimation is crucial. In this study, the effect of climate change on 24-h probable maximum precipitation (PMP24) was investigated in a part of the Qareh-Su basin located in the Southeast of Caspian Sea. So far, there have been no estimates of the hydrometeorological PMP values under climate change conditions in the study area. For this purpose, the climatic data were applied during the years 1988–2017. To generate future data, the outputs of the CanESM2 (Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model) model as a general circulation model (GCM) under optimistic (RCP2.6), middle (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RCP8.5) emission scenarios, and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) were used in the near (2019–2048) and the far (2049–2078) future periods. The PMP24 values were estimated using a physical method in the baseline and future periods under the three scenarios. The PMP24 value was estimated about 143 mm for the baseline period, using a physical approach. These values were 98, 105, and 109 for the near-future and 129, 122, and 126 mm for the far-future period. The results showed that the physical approach's PMP24 values tend to fall at 14–38%. Overall, the PMP24 values decrease in the future, and the rate of PMP decrease in the near-future was more than the rate of the far-future. The spatial distribution maps of PMP24 in the baseline and future periods showed that the PMP24 values decreased from west to east.