IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v102y2020i3d10.1007_s11069-020-03948-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Flash flood in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro state (Brazil) in 2011: part I—calibration watershed through hydrological SMAP model

Author

Listed:
  • Marianna Rodrigues Gullo Cavalcante

    (Federal Fluminense University – UFF)

  • Priscila Luz Barcellos

    (Federal Fluminense University – UFF)

  • Marcio Cataldi

    (Federal Fluminense University – UFF)

Abstract

In January 2011, the Mountainous Region of Rio de Janeiro state underwent one of the largest natural hazards in Brazil, affecting more than 300,000 people, causing more than 900 dead and irreparable human losses and enormous economic losses. From a hydrometeorological point of view, for the prevention of this type of disaster, alert systems are used worldwide, seeking to anticipate these phenomena by issuing warnings to the population, using tools such as hydrometeorological monitoring and modeling. This study evaluated the applicability of the hydrological soil moisture accounting procedure (SMAP) model with daily discretization as a flood prevention tool in Brazil. It was done by adjusting sub-watershed parameters in the semiautomatic calibration process, inserting observed data of precipitation and stream flow, as well as evapotranspiration in the calibration of the model, between 2008 and 2010. The model was validated twice, between the years of 2011 and 2013, and during the disaster period. The results show that the efficiency coefficient reached in the calibration stage was 1.713, with a relative error of 12% between the calculated and the observed stream flow, and in the validation, the results were 1.401 and 28%, respectively. In the validation of the disaster, the calculated stream flow was overestimated, with an average relative error of 53%. Flash flood prevention through the use of the daily SMAP model has shown promise for use in operational centers.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianna Rodrigues Gullo Cavalcante & Priscila Luz Barcellos & Marcio Cataldi, 2020. "Flash flood in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro state (Brazil) in 2011: part I—calibration watershed through hydrological SMAP model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1117-1134, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:102:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03948-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03948-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-03948-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-03948-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. E. Shamir & K. Georgakakos & C. Spencer & T. Modrick & M. Murphy & R. Jubach, 2013. "Evaluation of real-time flash flood forecasts for Haiti during the passage of Hurricane Tomas, November 4–6, 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 459-482, June.
    2. Leandro Casagrande & Javier Tomasella & Regina Célia Santos Alvalá & Marcus Jorge Bottino & Rochane Oliveira Caram, 2017. "Early flood warning in the Itajaí-Açu River basin using numerical weather forecasting and hydrological modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 741-757, September.
    3. Krishna Osuri & U. Mohanty & A. Routray & Makarand Kulkarni & M. Mohapatra, 2012. "Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(3), pages 1337-1359, September.
    4. Saji Mohandas & Raghavendra Ashrit, 2014. "Sensitivity of different convective parameterization schemes on tropical cyclone prediction using a mesoscale model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 213-235, September.
    5. Melanie Gall & Kevin A. Borden & Christopher T. Emrich & Susan L. Cutter, 2011. "The Unsustainable Trend of Natural Hazard Losses in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(11), pages 1-25, November.
    6. Juan Wu & Guihua Lu & Zhiyong Wu, 2014. "Flood forecasts based on multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting using a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 325-340, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Young Seok Song & Moo Jong Park & Jung Ho Lee & Byung Sik Kim & Yang Ho Song, 2020. "Improvement Measure of Integrated Disaster Management System Considering Disaster Damage Characteristics: Focusing on the Republic of Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    2. Matteo Coronese & Francesco Lamperti & Francesca Chiaromonte & Andrea Roventini, 2018. "Natural Disaster Risk and the Distributional Dynamics of Damages," LEM Papers Series 2018/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Rachel Samuels & John E. Taylor & Neda Mohammadi, 2020. "Silence of the Tweets: incorporating social media activity drop-offs into crisis detection," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 1455-1477, August.
    4. Nicholas A Cradock-Henry & Joanna Fountain & Franca Buelow, 2018. "Transformations for Resilient Rural Futures: The Case of Kaikōura, Aotearoa-New Zealand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Christopher T. Emrich & Yao Zhou & Sanam K. Aksha & Herbert E. Longenecker, 2022. "Creating a Nationwide Composite Hazard Index Using Empirically Based Threat Assessment Approaches Applied to Open Geospatial Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-25, February.
    6. S. Fadnavis & Medha Deshpande & Sachin Ghude & P. Ernest Raj, 2014. "Simulation of severe thunder storm event: a case study over Pune, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 927-943, June.
    7. Lin Wang & Guofang Hu & Yaojie Yue & Xinyue Ye & Min Li & Jintao Zhao & Jinhong Wan, 2016. "GIS-Based Risk Assessment of Hail Disasters Affecting Cotton and Its Spatiotemporal Evolution in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Nasreen Akter, 2022. "Tropical cyclogenesis associated with premonsoon climatological dryline over the Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2625-2647, July.
    9. Kousky, Carolyn, 2014. "Informing climate adaptation: A review of the economic costs of natural disasters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 576-592.
    10. Kousky, Carolyn & Michel-Kerjan, Erwann O. & Raschky, Paul A., 2018. "Does federal disaster assistance crowd out flood insurance?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 150-164.
    11. Qianqian Wang & Dongchuan Wang & Yong Huang & Zhiheng Wang & Lihui Zhang & Qiaozhen Guo & Wei Chen & Wengang Chen & Mengqin Sang, 2015. "Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Based on Selected Optimal Combination of Landslide Predisposing Factors in a Large Catchment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Adam Smith & Richard Katz, 2013. "US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: data sources, trends, accuracy and biases," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 387-410, June.
    13. Ji Guo & Hui Liu & Xianhua Wu & Jiong Gu & Shunfeng Song & Yinshan Tang, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in China―An Empirical Study Using Provincial Panel Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-18, December.
    14. Alex P. Ferguson & Walker S. Ashley, 2017. "Spatiotemporal analysis of residential flood exposure in the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 989-1016, June.
    15. Shiyao Zhu & Haibo Feng & Qiuhu Shao, 2023. "Evaluating Urban Flood Resilience within the Social-Economic-Natural Complex Ecosystem: A Case Study of Cities in the Yangtze River Delta," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, June.
    16. Fang Jing & Li-Zhuang Yang & Ya-Li Peng & Ying Wang & Xiaochu Zhang & Da-Ren Zhang, 2017. "Enhancing the effectiveness of flood road gauges with color coding," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 55-70, August.
    17. Christoph Aubrecht & Patrick Meier & Hannes Taubenböck, 2017. "Speeding up the clock in remote sensing: identifying the ‘black spots’ in exposure dynamics by capitalizing on the full spectrum of joint high spatial and temporal resolution," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 177-182, March.
    18. Young Seok Song & Moo Jong Park, 2018. "A Study on Estimation Equation for Damage and Recovery Costs Considering Human Losses Focused on Natural Disasters in the Republic of Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, August.
    19. Won Seok Jang & Jonggun Kim & Bernard A. Engel & Sung Won Kang & Youngkon Park & Heetaek Yoon & Kyoung Jae Lim & Younghun Jung & Yongchul Shin, 2014. "Development of a Prototype Web GIS-Based Disaster Management System for Safe Operation of the Next Generation Bimodal Tram, South Korea—Focused Flooding and Snowfall," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-20, April.
    20. H. Moel & B. Jongman & H. Kreibich & B. Merz & E. Penning-Rowsell & P. Ward, 2015. "Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 865-890, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:102:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03948-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.