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Analysis of the susceptibility of interdependent infrastructures using fuzzy input–output inoperability model: the case of flood hazards in Tehran

Author

Listed:
  • Sina Samimi

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Sadoullah Ebrahimnejad

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Mohammad Mojtahedi

    (The University of New South Wales)

Abstract

Advancement in technology has contributed to increment in complexity of systems and infrastructures. Furthermore, it has complicated the management of systems to deal with natural hazards. Input–output inoperability model (IIM) is a simple method to characterize the impacts of natural hazards on interconnected infrastructures. In this paper, the impacts of a flood hazard on six critical infrastructures in Tehran metropolitan have been assessed by using IIM. The computational results show that energy and transportation infrastructures are the most influencing infrastructures, while emergency services and healthcare infrastructures are the most influenced infrastructures. All data required to evaluate this case study have been collected using questionnaires and converted to fuzzy interdependency values. To increase decision-making power, the developed fuzzy matrix has been arranged for different risk levels (from absolutely optimistic to absolutely pessimistic) and confidence levels (from absolutely confident to absolutely non-confident). Afterward, the interdependency matrix has been deffuzified, and inoperability of infrastructures has been calculated by the IIM for seven different initial conditions. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been conducted to incorporate the risk levels and confidence levels to determine values of inoperability under the above-mentioned conditions. The ranking for both of the influencing and the influenced infrastructures has also been provided. This ranking helps decision makers to manage natural hazard risks effectively by appropriate resource allocation. It also helps to realize the interdependencies among infrastructures and to determine the inoperability of infrastructures before natural hazards. This would help decision makers to mitigate the risk and prepare the society well in advance.

Suggested Citation

  • Sina Samimi & Sadoullah Ebrahimnejad & Mohammad Mojtahedi, 2020. "Analysis of the susceptibility of interdependent infrastructures using fuzzy input–output inoperability model: the case of flood hazards in Tehran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 69-88, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:100:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03799-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03799-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Setola, Roberto & De Porcellinis, Stefano & Sforna, Marino, 2009. "Critical infrastructure dependency assessment using the input–output inoperability model," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 170-178.
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    3. ASIMOPOLOS, Laurentiu & ASIMOPOLOS, Adrian-Aristide & ASIMOPOLOS, Natalia-Silvia, 2018. "The Role Of Interdependencies Between Critical Infrastructures In Rural Development," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 18(2), pages 63-81.
    4. Oliva, Gabriele & Panzieri, Stefano & Setola, Roberto, 2011. "Fuzzy dynamic input–output inoperability model," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 165-175.
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