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A mathematical theory of evidence for G.L.S. Shackle


  • Guido Fioretti



Evidence Theory is a branch of mathematics that concerns the combination of empirical evidence in an individual's mind in order to construct a coherent picture of reality. Designed to deal with unexpected empirical evidence suggesting new possibilities, evidence theory has a lot in common with Shackle's idea of decision-making as a creative act. This essay investigates this connection in detail, pointing to the usefulness of evidence theory to formalise and extend Shackle's decision theory. In order to ease a proper framing of the issues involved, evidence theory is not only compared with Shackle's ideas but also with additive and sub-additive probability theories. Furthermore, the presentation of evidence theory does not refer to the original version only, but takes account of its most recent developments, too.
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Suggested Citation

  • Guido Fioretti, 2001. "A mathematical theory of evidence for G.L.S. Shackle," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 2(1), pages 77-98, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:minsoc:v:2:y:2001:i:1:p:77-98 DOI: 10.1007/BF02512076

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February.
    2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    3. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    4. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
    5. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    6. J. L. Ford, 1987. "Economic Choice Under Uncertainty," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 170.
    7. Sarin, Rakesh K & Wakker, Peter, 1992. "A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1255-1272, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fioretti, Guido, 2009. "Either, Or. Exploration of an Emerging Decision Theory," MPRA Paper 12897, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Decision theory; cognition; novel events;


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