IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v28y2004i2p186-197.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A time-varying volatility approach to modeling the phillips curve: A cross-country analysis

Author

Listed:
  • William Seyfried
  • Bradley Ewing

Abstract

This research examines the Phillips curve price adjustment mechanism allowing for the conditional variance of inflation to be time varying. Specifically, we estimate ARCH and GARCH models of inflation for Canada, Japan, and the U.K. The results suggest that an increase in the conditional variability of inflation leads to higher levels of inflation. In addition, inclusion of inflation variability in the Phillips curve model results in a higher weight being attributed to the output gap than in traditional models. (JEF E24) Copyright Springer 2004

Suggested Citation

  • William Seyfried & Bradley Ewing, 2004. "A time-varying volatility approach to modeling the phillips curve: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 186-197, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:28:y:2004:i:2:p:186-197
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02761610
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF02761610
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/BF02761610?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reagan, Patricia & Stulz, Rene M, 1993. "Contracting Costs, Inflation, and Relative Price Variability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 585-601, August.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    4. TF. Nas & MJ. Perry, 2000. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and monetary policy in Turkey: 1960–1998," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 170-180, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ewing, Bradley T. & Seyfried, William L, 2003. "Modeling The Philips Curve: A Time-Varying Volatility Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    2. Galindo, Luis M., 1995. "La hipótesis de expectativas en el mercado de Cetes en México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 10(1), pages 67-88.
    3. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    4. Biru Paksha Paul, 2013. "Inflation--growth nexus: some bivariate EGARCH evidence for Bangladesh," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 66-76, March.
    5. Haigh, Michael S. & Bryant, Henry L., 2000. "Price And Price Risk Dynamics In Barge And Ocean Freight Markets And The Effects On Commodity Trading," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18934, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Schindler, Felix, 2009. "Volatilitätseffekte am US-amerikanischen Häusermarkt," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-048, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Matteo Bonato & Luca Taschini, 2016. "Comovement and the financialization of commodities," GRI Working Papers 215, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    8. Zoundi Zakaria, 2017. "Crude Oil Price Volatility and Domestic Price Responses in Developing Countries, Accounting for Asymmetry and Uncertainty," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2466-2482.
    9. Elaheh Asadi Mehmandosti & Fatemeh Bazazan & Mir Hossein Mousavi, 2016. "Uncertainty of Oil Proved Reserves and Economic Growth in Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 374-380.
    10. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Bahram Adrangi & Richard D. Gritta & Kambiz Raffiee, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers and Nonlinear Dynamics between Jet Fuel Prices and Air Carrier Revenue Passenger Miles in the US," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 01-18, August.
    12. Cheng-few Lee & Keshab Shrestha & Robert Welch, 2007. "Relationship between Treasury bills and Eurodollars: Theoretical and Empirical Analyses," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 163-185, February.
    13. El Bouhadi, Abdelhamid & Achibane, Khalid, 2009. "The Predictive Power of Conditional Models: What Lessons to Draw with Financial Crisis in the Case of Pre-Emerging Capital Markets?," MPRA Paper 19482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Kuo, I-Doun & Chiang, Thomas C., 2014. "What explains deviations in the unbiased expectations hypothesis? Market irrationality vs. the peso problem," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 172-190.
    15. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:66:n:3:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    17. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    18. Matos, Paulo & Beviláqua, Giovanni & Filho, Jaime, 2012. "Previsão do câmbio real-dólar sob um arcabouço de apreçamento de ativos," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 66(3), October.
    19. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    20. Tan Hock Ann, Albert & Alles, Lakshman, 2000. "An examination of causality and predictability between Australian domestic and offshore interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 83-106, January.
    21. Dennis W. Jansen, 1989. "Does inflation uncertainty affect output growth? Further evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 43-54.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:28:y:2004:i:2:p:186-197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.