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Inflation, output, and stock prices: Evidence from two major emerging markets

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  • Bahram Adrangi
  • Arjun Chatrath
  • Kambiz Raffiee

Abstract

Research in economics and finance documents a puzzling negative relationship between stock returns and inflation rates in markets of industrialized economies. The present study investigates this relationship for Korea and Mexico. We show that the negative relationship between the real stock returns and unexpected inflation persists after purging inflation of the effects of the real economic activity. Johansen and Juselius cointegration tests verify that the long-run equilibrium between stock prices and general price levels is weak. However, in both economies, stock prices and general price levels seem to show a strong long-run equilibrium with the real economic activity. Copyright Springer 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Kambiz Raffiee, 1999. "Inflation, output, and stock prices: Evidence from two major emerging markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(3), pages 266-278, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:23:y:1999:i:3:p:266-278
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02757711
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ram, Rati & Spencer, David E, 1983. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 463-470, June.
    2. Chatrath, Arjun & Ramchander, Sanjay & Song, Frank, 1996. "Stock prices, inflation and output: Evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 237-245.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    5. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Habibullah, M.S. & Baharom, A.H. & Fong, Kin Hing, 2009. "Predictive Content of Output and Inflation For Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 14114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2006. "Stock returns and inflation in Greece: A Markov switching approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 76-94.
    3. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    4. Janor, Hawati & Rahim, Ruzita & Yaacob, Mohd & ibrahim, izani, 2010. "Stock Returns and Inflation with Supply and Demand Shocks: Evidence from Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 44, pages 3-10.
    5. Dikaios Tserkezos & Eleni Thanou, 2007. "Conventional Nonlinear Relationships between GDP, Inflation and Stock Market Returns. An Investigation for the Greek Economy," Working Papers 0731, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    6. Nopphon Tangjitprom, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors of Emerging Stock Market: The Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(2), pages 105-114, April.

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