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Machine learning predictivity applied to consumer creditworthiness

Author

Listed:
  • Maisa Cardoso Aniceto

    (University of Brasília)

  • Flavio Barboza

    (Federal University of Uberlandia)

  • Herbert Kimura

    (University of Brasília)

Abstract

Credit risk evaluation has a relevant role to financial institutions, since lending may result in real and immediate losses. In particular, default prediction is one of the most challenging activities for managing credit risk. This study analyzes the adequacy of borrower’s classification models using a Brazilian bank’s loan database, and exploring machine learning techniques. We develop Support Vector Machine, Decision Trees, Bagging, AdaBoost and Random Forest models, and compare their predictive accuracy with a benchmark based on a Logistic Regression model. Comparisons are analyzed based on usual classification performance metrics. Our results show that Random Forest and Adaboost perform better when compared to other models. Moreover, Support Vector Machine models show poor performance using both linear and nonlinear kernels. Our findings suggest that there are value creating opportunities for banks to improve default prediction models by exploring machine learning techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Maisa Cardoso Aniceto & Flavio Barboza & Herbert Kimura, 2020. "Machine learning predictivity applied to consumer creditworthiness," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:futbus:v:6:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s43093-020-00041-w
    DOI: 10.1186/s43093-020-00041-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Khandani, Amir E. & Kim, Adlar J. & Lo, Andrew W., 2010. "Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2767-2787, November.
    2. Fahmida E. Moula & Chi Guotai & Mohammad Zoynul Abedin, 2017. "Credit default prediction modeling: an application of support vector machine," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(2), pages 158-187, May.
    3. Crone, Sven F. & Finlay, Steven, 2012. "Instance sampling in credit scoring: An empirical study of sample size and balancing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 224-238.
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    3. Ionuț Nica & Daniela Blană Alexandru & Simona Liliana Paramon Crăciunescu & Ștefan Ionescu, 2021. "Automated Valuation Modelling: Analysing Mortgage Behavioural Life Profile Models Using Machine Learning Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-27, May.

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