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Predicting changes in Bitcoin price using grey system theory

Author

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  • Mahboubeh Faghih Mohammadi Jalali

    (Damghan University)

  • Hanif Heidari

    (Damghan University)

Abstract

Bitcoin is currently the leading global provider of cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency allows users to safely and anonymously use the Internet to perform digital currency transfers and storage. In recent years, the Bitcoin network has attracted investors, businesses, and corporations while facilitating services and product deals. Moreover, Bitcoin has made itself the dominant source of decentralized cryptocurrency. While considerable research has been done concerning Bitcoin network analysis, limited research has been conducted on predicting the Bitcoin price. The purpose of this study is to predict the price of Bitcoin and changes therein using the grey system theory. The first order grey model (GM (1,1)) is used for this purpose. It uses a first-order differential equation to model the trend of time series. The results show that the GM (1,1) model predicts Bitcoin’s price accurately and that one can earn a maximum profit confidence level of approximately 98% by choosing the appropriate time frame and by managing investment assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahboubeh Faghih Mohammadi Jalali & Hanif Heidari, 2020. "Predicting changes in Bitcoin price using grey system theory," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:6:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-020-0174-9
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-020-0174-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    15. Ji Ho Kwon, 2021. "On the factors of Bitcoin’s value at risk," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, December.
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