IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/envsyd/v42y2022i3d10.1007_s10669-022-09863-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The false alarm/surprise trade-off in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Ramón Elía

    (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional)

Abstract

Early warning systems for weather events are becoming widespread as technological capacities develop. For warnings to be effective, they must allow enough lead time to deploy protective measures yet the earlier a warning is broadcast the greater may be its uncertainty. In dichotomous warning systems (i.e., warning-no warning), a measure of this uncertainty is the number of wrong messages issued in terms of “surprises” (events missed by the warning system) or “false alarms.” Given the range of repercussions of errors of either kind, warning system users can be expected to have different reactions to this uncertainty. Some will cope better with false alarms, others with surprises. This will affect preferences with respect to system sensitivity; that is, the threshold of threat evidence required for the realization of the warning, each threshold having a given false alarm/surprise trade-off. This article adopts an expected utility theory perspective to define different false alarm/surprise trade-offs for users of a warning system. An analytical expression for a cost function is proposed, which under certain conditions depends only on one parameter under the control of forecasters (i.e., number of tolerated surprises). We show quantitatively how optimal trade-offs depend on what is at stake for users and their capability to react to warnings, and how users’ varying needs represent a dilemma for a weather service regarding false alarm/surprise trade-off settings. In particular, it is shown that unbiased warnings—a condition often rewarded at the verification stage—do not hold any specific virtue for minimizing losses. A general discussion follows regarding the need to better understand and better communicate this dilemma to policy makers, users, and the public.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramón Elía, 2022. "The false alarm/surprise trade-off in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 450-461, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:42:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10669-022-09863-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-022-09863-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10669-022-09863-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10669-022-09863-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jared LeClerc & Susan Joslyn, 2015. "The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather‐Related Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 385-395, March.
    2. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "A cost effective solution to reduce disaster losses in developing countries: hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation," Post-Print hal-00802045, HAL.
    3. Sunstein, Cass R, 2000. "Cognition and Cost-Benefit Analysis," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(2), pages 1059-1103, June.
    4. Ki-Kwang Lee & In-Gyum Kim, 2020. "Social Media Data Analytics to Enhance Sustainable Communications between Public Users and Providers in Weather Forecast Service Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-13, October.
    5. Chun Wei Choo, 2009. "Information use and early warning effectiveness: Perspectives and prospects," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 60(5), pages 1071-1082, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van Bergeijk, P.A.G. & Lazzaroni, S., 2013. "Macroeconomics of natural disasters," ISS Working Papers - General Series 50075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Zinaida M. Pogosova & M Nizhnik & Henry Penikas, 2015. "The Decision-Making Process in Punishment Imposition: Four Factors of Public Perception in Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 56/LAW/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Jean-Marc Montaud, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working papers of CATT hal-02141050, HAL.
    4. Eric A. Posner & E. Glen Weyl, 2014. "Benefit-Cost Paradigms in Financial Regulation," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(S2), pages 1-34.
    5. Jean-Marc MONTAUD, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2018-2019_5, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Feb 2019.
    6. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Alberto Romero, 2019. "Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises with Real-Time Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 813-835, September.
    7. Anni Arumsari Fitriany & Piotr J. Flatau & Khoirunurrofik Khoirunurrofik & Nelly Florida Riama, 2021. "Assessment on the Use of Meteorological and Social Media Information for Forest Fire Detection and Prediction in Riau, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Jolanta Bijańska & Krzysztof Wodarski & Aneta Aleksander, 2022. "Analysis of the Financing Options for Pro-Ecological Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-30, March.
    9. Vorisek,Dana Lauren & Yu,Shu, 2020. "Understanding the Cost of Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9164, The World Bank.
    10. Antony Millner & Hélène Ollivier, 2016. "Beliefs, Politics, and Environmental Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 226-244.
    11. Treich, Nicolas, 2010. "The value of a statistical life under ambiguity aversion," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 15-26, January.
    12. Carolus, Johannes Friedrich & Hanley, Nick & Olsen, Søren Bøye & Pedersen, Søren Marcus, 2018. "A Bottom-up Approach to Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 282-295.
    13. Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler & JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer & Junko Mochizuki, 2019. "Flood Proofing Low-Income Houses in India: an Application of Climate-Sensitive Probabilistic Benefit-Cost Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 23-38, April.
    14. Petr Špecián, 2017. "Ekonomická analýza referenda [Economic Analysis of a Referendum]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(4), pages 460-475.
    15. Johanna Jussila Hammes, 2021. "The Impact of Career Concerns and Cognitive Dissonance on Bureaucrats’ Use of Benefit-Cost Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(2), pages 409-424, October.
    16. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "An exploration of the link between development, economic growth, and natural risk," Post-Print hal-00802047, HAL.
    17. Lisa A. Robinson & James K. Hammitt, 2013. "Behavioral economics and the conduct of benefit–cost analysis: towards principles and standards," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 10, pages 317-363, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Marquez, Pablo, 2006. "Cost Benefit Analysis, Value Of A Statistical Life And Culture: Challenges For Risk Regulation," MPRA Paper 2632, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2007.
    19. Fekadu Fufa Feyessa & Seifu Kebede Debela, 2022. "Rainfall-Runoff Modeling And Its Prioritization At Sub-Watershed Level Using Swat Model: A Case Of Finca’Aa, Oromia, Western Ethiopia," Water Conservation & Management (WCM), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 22-29, February.
    20. Jussila Hammes , Johanna, 2017. "The impact of career concerns and cognitive dissonance on bureaucrats’ use of cost-benefit analysis," Working papers in Transport Economics 2017:5, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:42:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10669-022-09863-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.