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Ways and modes of utilizing Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism: new perspectives for decision and sustainability research?

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  • Roland W. Scholz

    (Danube University of Krems
    ETH Zurich
    University of Zurich)

Abstract

Several of the comments on the Managing Complexity paper deal with theoretical issues regarding Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism (TPF) (Mumpower; Hoffrage) or its application to sustainability planning groups (Mieg; Susskind). Other commenters extend the space of application of the TPF to better frame innovation or open data management (Steiner; Yarime) or focus frameworks of how to conceptualize modeling or transdisciplinary processes in sustainable transitioning (Wilson; Dedeurwaerdere). This response paper first clarifies several general issues, such as how to approach the evaluation of single TPF principles such as representativeness, in what way TPF may improve sustainability planning groups’ performance, how sustainability may be conceived as a terminal focal variable, and in what way groups are organisms. Based on an acknowledgment of the eight comments and their groundbreaking ideas, we discuss two shortcomings in the current use of the TPF, i.e., the definition of cues (sign-significates) and the challenge of how motivational and emotional approaches can be related to Brunswik’s framework of how the organism cognitively interacts with its environment. We conclude that the TPF will become a theoretical framework for structuring, representing, describing, understanding, modeling, and managing complex, inextricably coupled human–environment systems. This is of special interest not only for decision sciences but also for planning, environmental, and sustainability sciences.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland W. Scholz, 2018. "Ways and modes of utilizing Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism: new perspectives for decision and sustainability research?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 99-117, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:38:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10669-018-9678-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-018-9678-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cup:judgdm:v:3:y:2008:i:7:p:547-569 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Masaru Yarime, 2018. "Learning and open data in sustainability transitions: evolutionary implications of the theory of probabilistic functionalism," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 88-91, March.
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    4. Masahiro Sugiyama & Hiroshi Deguchi & Arisa Ema & Atsuo Kishimoto & Junichiro Mori & Hideaki Shiroyama & Roland W. Scholz, 2017. "Unintended Side Effects of Digital Transition: Perspectives of Japanese Experts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, November.
    5. Jan Rotmans & Derk Loorbach, 2009. "Complexity and Transition Management," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 13(2), pages 184-196, April.
    6. Lawrence Susskind, 2018. "Comments on “Managing complexity: from visual perception to sustainable transitions. Contributions of Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism”," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 74-75, March.
    7. Gerald Steiner, 2018. "From probabilistic functionalism to a mental simulation of innovation: by collaboration from vulnerabilities to resilient societal systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 92-98, March.
    8. Robyn S. Wilson, 2018. "Accounting for behavioral responses to environmental cues in complex systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 76-78, March.
    9. Roland W. Scholz & Yann B. Blumer & Fridolin S. Brand, 2012. "Risk, vulnerability, robustness, and resilience from a decision-theoretic perspective," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 313-330, March.
    10. Peter Loukopoulos & Roland W Scholz, 2004. "Sustainable Future Urban Mobility: Using ‘Area Development Negotiations’ for Scenario Assessment and Participatory Strategic Planning," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 36(12), pages 2203-2226, December.
    11. Jonathan N. Pruitt & Charles J. Goodnight, 2014. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Site-specific group selection drives locally adapted group compositions," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7522), pages 359-362, October.
    12. Tom Dedeurwaerdere, 2018. "From ecological psychology to four varieties of post-positivism in transdisciplinary science," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 79-83, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zachary A. Collier & James H. Lambert & Igor Linkov, 2018. "Resilience, sustainability, and complexity in social, environmental, and technical systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 1-2, March.
    2. Scholz, Roland W. & Zscheischler, Jana & Köckler, Heike & Czichos, Reiner & Hofmann, Klaus-Markus & Sindermann, Cornelia, 2024. "Transdisciplinary knowledge integration – PART I: Theoretical foundations and an organizational structure," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. Scholz, Roland W. & Köckler, Heike & Zscheischler, Jana & Czichos, Reiner & Hofmann, Klaus-Markus & Sindermann, Cornelia, 2024. "Transdisciplinary knowledge integration PART II: Experiences of five transdisciplinary processes on digital data use in Germany," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).

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