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Marriage (Still) Matters: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Trends in Childlessness in the United States

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  • Sarah Hayford

Abstract

Childlessness in the United States nearly doubled between 1980 and 2000. Other dramatic changes in the U.S. population also took place over this period—notably, women’s average educational attainment increased, and the proportion marrying declined—but the impact of these changes on childlessness has not been formally examined. In this article, I use data from the Current Population Survey Fertility Supplements (1995, 1998, 2004, 2008) and logistic regression and regression-based decomposition techniques to assess the contribution of changes in educational attainment, marriage behavior, and racial/ethnic composition on population levels of childlessness in the United States. Results show that increases in the proportion of women unmarried by age 40 contributed most to the increase in childlessness in the late twentieth century, although these increases were offset somewhat by increased childbearing among unmarried women. The rising proportion of women with a college degree also explained a substantial amount of the increase in childless women. Copyright Population Association of America 2013

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  • Sarah Hayford, 2013. "Marriage (Still) Matters: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Trends in Childlessness in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1641-1661, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:50:y:2013:i:5:p:1641-1661
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-013-0215-3
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    1. David Reher & Miguel Requena, 2019. "Childlessness in Twentieth-Century Spain: A Cohort Analysis for Women Born 1920–1969," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(1), pages 133-160, February.
    2. Mariana Amorim & Laura M. Tach, 2019. "Multiple-Partner Fertility and Cohort Change in the Prevalence of Half-Siblings," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(6), pages 2033-2061, December.
    3. Valentina Tocchioni & Anna Rybińska & Monika Mynarska & Anna Matysiak & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Life-course trajectories of childless women: Country-specific or universal?," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    4. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, 2022. "The Formation and Realization of Fertility Goals Among a US Cohort in the Post‐Recession Years," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 991-1026, December.
    5. Bhalotra, Sonia & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and labor market responses to reductions in mortality," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Echo L. Warner & Megan Hebdon & Djin L. Tay & Keely Smith & Anna Welling & Jiayun Xu, 2023. "Young Adult Cancer Care Partners: A Theoretical Description of an Emerging Population with Unique Needs," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(17), pages 1-10, August.
    7. Jesús García-Gómez & Emilio Parrado, 2023. "Early Childbearing of Immigrant Women and Their Descendants in Spain," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(4), pages 1-26, August.
    8. Albert Esteve & David S. Reher & Rocío Treviño & Pilar Zueras & Anna Turu, 2020. "Living Alone over the Life Course: Cross‐National Variations on an Emerging Issue," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(1), pages 169-189, March.
    9. Valentina Tocchioni & Anna Rybińska & Monika Mynarska & Anna Matysiak & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Life-Course Trajectories of Childless Women: Country-Specific or Universal?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 1315-1332, December.
    10. Karen Benjamin Guzzo & Sarah R. Hayford & Vanessa Wanner Lang, 2019. "Adolescent Fertility Attitudes and Childbearing in Early Adulthood," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(1), pages 125-152, February.
    11. Natalie Nitsche & Sarah Hayford, 2018. "Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Union Formation Timing, and Achieved Fertility," VID Working Papers 1810, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    12. Alison Gemmill, 2019. "From Some to None? Fertility Expectation Dynamics of Permanently Childless Women," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(1), pages 129-149, February.
    13. Gregory Sharp & Ellen Whitehead & Matthew Hall, 2020. "Tapped Out? Racial Disparities in Extrahousehold Kin Resources and the Loss of Homeownership," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1903-1928, October.
    14. Anna Rybińska, 2020. "A Research Note on the Convergence of Childlessness Rates Between Women with Secondary and Tertiary Education in the United States," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(5), pages 827-839, November.
    15. Victor Antunes Leocádio & Ana Paula Verona & Adriana Miranda-Ribeiro, 2022. "Contributions of Sociodemographic Changes to the Increase in Permanent Childlessness in Brazil: A Cohort Decomposition Analysis," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 1951-1973, October.

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