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Navigating complex waters: Designing a process for the development of the National Climate Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher W. Avery

    (ICF)

  • Allison R. Crimmins

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Allyza R. Lustig

    (ICF)

  • April D. Lamb

    (North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, North Carolina State University)

  • Isabel J. Fuller

    (ICF)

  • Ciara Lemery

    (ICF)

  • Aaron Grade

    (ICF)

  • Daniel Barrie

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Abstract

Scientific assessments are tools used to look across a broad body of knowledge and draw overarching conclusions about the state of the science. They allow experts to synthesize technical knowledge and develop broad understanding of observed and future trends, risks, and opportunities. The National Climate Assessment (NCA), a major climate report of the United States (U.S.) Government, is one such assessment report. The NCA was created by Congressional statute and is classified as a Highly Influential Scientific Assessment, which results in a wide range of obligations, as well as required compliance with various statutes and other federal policies and procedures. The NCA also represents a unique effort to bring together federal agencies, the scientific community, and users of climate science throughout the U.S. to empower decision-making, build consensus, and drive climate actions. Innovations in the NCA development process over multiple cycles of the report’s development were implemented to meet both evolving legal requirements and user needs are described in this paper to share institutional knowledge and best practices with those assessment developers who might be navigating similarly complex constraints. This paper seeks to summarize that history and draw out some valuable lessons for future interagency assessment development teams. A discussion of critical innovations, including expansion of technical resources, knowledge bases, and communication tools, is included to inform the development process of future scientific assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher W. Avery & Allison R. Crimmins & Allyza R. Lustig & April D. Lamb & Isabel J. Fuller & Ciara Lemery & Aaron Grade & Daniel Barrie, 2025. "Navigating complex waters: Designing a process for the development of the National Climate Assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 1-24, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03854-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03854-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katharine Jacobs & James Buizer & Susanne Moser, 2016. "The third US national climate assessment: innovations in science and engagement," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-7, March.
    2. Katharine L. Jacobs & James L. Buizer & Susanne C. Moser, 2016. "The third US national climate assessment: innovations in science and engagement," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-7, March.
    3. Michael Mastrandrea & Katharine Mach & Gian-Kasper Plattner & Ottmar Edenhofer & Thomas Stocker & Christopher Field & Kristie Ebi & Patrick Matschoss, 2011. "The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 675-691, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric K. Chu & Gillian Bowser & Abby G. Frazier & Alyssa Quintyne & Linda Shi & Pamela McElwee, 2025. "Broadening diversity, equity, accessibility, and inclusion in the process and development of climate assessments," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(4), pages 1-11, April.
    2. Samantha Basile & Allison Crimmins & Fredric Lipschultz & Kenneth E. Kunkel & Kate Marvel & Adam Terando & Claudia Tebaldi & David Pierce & Wenying Su & L. Ruby Leung & Katharine Hayhoe, 2025. "Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(4), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Abby G. Frazier & Allyza R. Lustig & Michael Chang & Emile H. Elias & Renee A. McPherson & Victoria W. Keener & Zena N. Grecni & Henry P. Huntington & Ellen L. Mecray & Kimberly M. Wood & Kathie D. De, 2025. "Reflections on preparing regional chapters for NCA5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(4), pages 1-23, April.

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