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Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Author

Listed:
  • Steven K. Rose

    (Electric Power Research Institute)

  • Alexander Popp

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Leibniz Association)

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Kyoto University
    National Institute for Environmental Studies
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Petr Havlik

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • John Weyant

    (Stanford University)

  • Marshall Wise

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Univ. of Maryland)

  • Detlef Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University)

  • Thierry Brunelle

    (CIRAD)

  • Ryna Yiyun Cui

    (University of Maryland)

  • Vassilis Daioglou

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University)

  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (Ritsumeikan University)

  • Florian Humpenöder

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Leibniz Association)

  • Etsushi Kato

    (The Institute of Applied Energy)

  • Ronald D. Sands

    (USDA Economic Research Service)

  • Fuminori Sano

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

  • Junichi Tsutsui

    (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)

  • Jonathan Doelman

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University)

  • Matteo Muratori

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

  • Rémi Prudhomme

    (CIRAD)

  • Kenichi Wada

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

  • Hiromi Yamamoto

    (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)

Abstract

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven K. Rose & Alexander Popp & Shinichiro Fujimori & Petr Havlik & John Weyant & Marshall Wise & Detlef Vuuren & Thierry Brunelle & Ryna Yiyun Cui & Vassilis Daioglou & Stefan Frank & Tomoko Hasega, 2022. "Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-27, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:172:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03336-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03336-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katherine Calvin & Marshall Wise & Page Kyle & Pralit Patel & Leon Clarke & Jae Edmonds, 2014. "Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 691-704, April.
    2. T. Gasser & C. Guivarch & K. Tachiiri & C. D. Jones & P. Ciais, 2015. "Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Yazhen & Deppermann, Andre & Havlík, Petr & Frank, Stefan & Ren, Ming & Zhao, Hao & Ma, Lin & Fang, Chen & Chen, Qi & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Global land-use and sustainability implications of enhanced bioenergy import of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    2. Florian Humpenöder & Alexander Popp & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Anton Orlov & Michael Gregory Windisch & Inga Menke & Julia Pongratz & Felix Havermann & Wim Thiery & Fei Luo & Patrick v. Jeetze & J, 2022. "Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Xin Zhao & Bryan K. Mignone & Marshall A. Wise & Haewon C. McJeon, 2024. "Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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