IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v149y2018i3d10.1007_s10584-018-2249-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sugar-energy sector vulnerability under CMIP5 projections in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region

Author

Listed:
  • Jurandir Zullo

    (University of Campinas)

  • Vânia Rosa Pereira

    (University of Campinas)

  • Andrea Koga-Vicente

    (University of Campinas)

Abstract

The Brazilian sugar-energy sector (SES) is facing an increasing challenge due to the worldwide expansion of biofuel consumption as a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, making yield improvement and land and water availability key factors in addressing this situation. Consequently, our main aim here is to identify SES vulnerability under climate change conditions, based on the methodology used by the Agricultural Zoning of Climatic Risks (ZARC) program. We assessed changes of the sugarcane ZARC in light of the current and near-future climatic conditions given by eight general circulation models (GCM) of the 5th IPCC report and under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. We identified a conversion of the current climatic risk levels in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region for sugarcane in future climate change scenarios, but the spatial distribution of these changes is heterogeneous. The current expansion areas located mainly in southern Goiás and northwest of São Paulo are marked by an increase in areas of low water availability in the future, while the traditional production areas, east of São Paulo, do not present this same vulnerability. Sugarcane cultivation in the south of Goiás is already occurring based on a complementary irrigation (of about 50 mm per month from April to September) to reach a yield similar to traditional areas located in São Paulo state. The development of drought-resistant cultivars based on genetic engineering and the efficiency of the irrigation systems used on a large spatial scale and also in the long term are two key points of concern in the Brazilian context of greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The challenges for the traditional production regions are related to the production system’s ability to regulate the capacity and idleness of sugarcane mills aiming to avoid current and future competition by same raw material.

Suggested Citation

  • Jurandir Zullo & Vânia Rosa Pereira & Andrea Koga-Vicente, 2018. "Sugar-energy sector vulnerability under CMIP5 projections in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 489-502, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:149:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2249-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2249-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2249-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-018-2249-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goldemberg, José & Mello, Francisco F.C. & Cerri, Carlos E.P. & Davies, Christian A. & Cerri, Carlos C., 2014. "Meeting the global demand for biofuels in 2021 through sustainable land use change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 14-18.
    2. Fabio Marin & James Jones & Abraham Singels & Frederick Royce & Eduardo Assad & Giampaolo Pellegrino & Flávio Justino, 2013. "Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 227-239, March.
    3. Todd Sanford & Peter C. Frumhoff & Amy Luers & Jay Gulledge, 2014. "The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 164-166, March.
    4. Leal, Manoel Regis L.V. & Horta Nogueira, Luiz A. & Cortez, Luis A.B., 2013. "Land demand for ethanol production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 266-271.
    5. Vanderlei Borsari & João Assunção, 2012. "Nitrous oxide emissions from gasohol, ethanol and CNG light duty vehicles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 519-531, April.
    6. Manochio, C. & Andrade, B.R. & Rodriguez, R.P. & Moraes, B.S., 2017. "Ethanol from biomass: A comparative overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 743-755.
    7. Golam Rasul & Bikash Sharma, 2016. "The nexus approach to water–energy–food security: an option for adaptation to climate change," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 682-702, August.
    8. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    9. Moreira, José Roberto & Romeiro, Viviane & Fuss, Sabine & Kraxner, Florian & Pacca, Sérgio A., 2016. "BECCS potential in Brazil: Achieving negative emissions in ethanol and electricity production based on sugar cane bagasse and other residues," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 55-63.
    10. Minghao Li & Wendong Zhang & Dermot J. Hayes & Riley Arthur & Yantao Yang & Xiudong Wang, 2017. "China's New Nationwide E10 Ethanol Mandate and Its Global Implications," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-fall-2017-2, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    11. Furtado, André Tosi & Scandiffio, Mirna Ivonne Gaya & Cortez, Luis Augusto Barbosa, 2011. "The Brazilian sugarcane innovation system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 156-166, January.
    12. Sai Gollakota & Scott McDonald, 2012. "CO 2 capture from ethanol production and storage into the Mt Simon Sandstone," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(5), pages 346-351, October.
    13. Arnaldo Walter & Marcelo Valadares Galdos & Fabio Vale Scarpare & Manoel Regis Lima Verde Leal & Joaquim Eugênio Abel Seabra & Marcelo Pereira da Cunha & Michelle Cristina Araujo Picoli & Camila Ortol, 2014. "Brazilian sugarcane ethanol: developments so far and challenges for the future," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 70-92, January.
    14. Steven Rose & Elmar Kriegler & Ruben Bibas & Katherine Calvin & Alexander Popp & Detlef Vuuren & John Weyant, 2014. "Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 477-493, April.
    15. Maria Silva Dias & Juliana Dias & Leila Carvalho & Edmilson Freitas & Pedro Silva Dias, 2013. "Changes in extreme daily rainfall for São Paulo, Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 705-722, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jazmin Campos Zeballos & Zita Sebesvari & Jakob Rhyner & Markus Metz & Vinicius Bof Bufon, 2022. "Drought Risk Assessment of Sugarcane-Based Electricity Generation in the Rio dos Patos Basin, Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Gustavo V. Popin & Arthur K. B. Santos & Thiago de P. Oliveira & Plínio B. Camargo & Carlos E. P. Cerri & Marcos Siqueira-Neto, 2020. "Sugarcane straw management for bioenergy: effects of global warming on greenhouse gas emissions and soil carbon storage," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 559-577, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ajay Gambhir & Laurent Drouet & David McCollum & Tamaryn Napp & Dan Bernie & Adam Hawkes & Oliver Fricko & Petr Havlik & Keywan Riahi & Valentina Bosetti & Jason Lowe, 2017. "Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, January.
    2. Milão, Raquel de Freitas Dias & Carminati, Hudson B. & Araújo, Ofélia de Queiroz F. & de Medeiros, José Luiz, 2019. "Thermodynamic, financial and resource assessments of a large-scale sugarcane-biorefinery: Prelude of full bioenergy carbon capture and storage scenario," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Defante, Lilliane Renata & Vilpoux, Olivier François & Sauer, Leandro, 2018. "Rapid expansion of sugarcane crop for biofuels and influence on food production in the first producing region of Brazil," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 121-131.
    4. Vassilis Stavrakas & Niki-Artemis Spyridaki & Alexandros Flamos, 2018. "Striving towards the Deployment of Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS): A Review of Research Priorities and Assessment Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-27, June.
    5. Umanath Malaiarasan & R. Paramasivam & K. Thomas Felix & S. J. Balaji, 2020. "Simultaneous equation model for Indian sugar sector," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 22(1), pages 113-141, June.
    6. Sanchez, Daniel L. & Callaway, Duncan S., 2016. "Optimal scale of carbon-negative energy facilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 437-444.
    7. Paola Sakai & Stavros Afionis & Nicola Favretto & Lindsay C. Stringer & Caroline Ward & Marco Sakai & Pedro Henrique Weirich Neto & Carlos Hugo Rocha & Jaime Alberti Gomes & Nátali Maidl de Souza & No, 2020. "Understanding the Implications of Alternative Bioenergy Crops to Support Smallholder Farmers in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Jing-Li Fan & Qian Wang & Xian Zhang, 2021. "A bibliometric analysis of the water-energy-food nexus based on the SCIE and SSCI database of the Web of Science," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 1-26, February.
    9. Kara J. Pitman & Jonathan W. Moore & Matthias Huss & Matthew R. Sloat & Diane C. Whited & Tim J. Beechie & Rich Brenner & Eran W. Hood & Alexander M. Milner & George R. Pess & Gordan H. Reeves & Danie, 2021. "Glacier retreat creating new Pacific salmon habitat in western North America," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Kirsten Halsnæs & Per Skougaard Kaspersen, 2018. "Decomposing the cascade of uncertainty in risk assessments for urban flooding reflecting critical decision-making issues," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 491-506, December.
    11. Fábio T. F. Silva & Alexandre Szklo & Amanda Vinhoza & Ana Célia Nogueira & André F. P. Lucena & Antônio Marcos Mendonça & Camilla Marcolino & Felipe Nunes & Francielle M. Carvalho & Isabela Tagomori , 2022. "Inter-sectoral prioritization of climate technologies: insights from a Technology Needs Assessment for mitigation in Brazil," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(7), pages 1-39, October.
    12. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    13. Govindan, Rajesh & Al-Ansari, Tareq, 2019. "Computational decision framework for enhancing resilience of the energy, water and food nexus in risky environments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 653-668.
    14. Audoly, Richard & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Guivarch, Céline & Pfeiffer, Alexander, 2018. "Pathways toward zero-carbon electricity required for climate stabilization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 884-901.
    15. Jiří Mikšovský & Rudolf Brázdil & Petr Štĕpánek & Pavel Zahradníček & Petr Pišoft, 2014. "Long-term variability of temperature and precipitation in the Czech Lands: an attribution analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 253-264, July.
    16. Tony E. Wong & Alexander M. R. Bakker & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 347-364, September.
    17. Sriroop Chaudhuri & Mimi Roy & Louis M. McDonald & Yves Emendack, 2021. "Reflections on farmers’ social networks: a means for sustainable agricultural development?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 2973-3008, March.
    18. Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Valentina Bosetti & Jessica Callen & Jacques Després & Jonathan Doelman & Laurent Drou, 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 386-396, May.
    19. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    20. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:149:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2249-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.