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Satellite-based rainfall data reveal a recent drying trend in central equatorial Africa

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  • Jeremy Diem
  • Sadie Ryan
  • Joel Hartter
  • Michael Palace

Abstract

West-central Uganda, a biodiversity hotspot on the eastern edge of central equatorial Africa (CEA), is a region coping with balancing food security needs of a rapidly growing human population dependent on subsistence agriculture with the conservation of critically endangered species. Documenting and understanding rainfall trends is thus of critical importance in west-central Uganda, but sparse information exists on rainfall trends in CEA during the past several decades. The recently created African Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC2) dataset has been shown to perform satisfactorily at identifying rainfall days and estimating seasonal rainfall totals in west-central Uganda. Therefore, we use ARC2 data to assess rainfall trends in west-central Uganda and other parts of equatorial Africa from 1983–2012. The core variables examined were three-month rainfall variables for west-central Uganda, and annual rainfall variables and seasonal rainfall totals for a transect that extended from northwestern Democratic Republic of the Congo to southern Somalia. Significant decreases in rainfall in west-central Uganda occurred for multiple three-month periods centered on boreal summer, and rainfall associated with the two growing seasons decreased by 20 % from 1983–2012. The drying trend in west-central Uganda extended westward into the Congo rainforest. Rainfall in CEA was significantly correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) at the annual scale and during boreal summer and autumn. Two other possible causes of the decreasing rainfall in CEA besides North Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures (e.g., AMO), are the warming of the Indian Ocean and increasing concentrations of carbonaceous aerosols over tropical Africa from biomass burning. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Diem & Sadie Ryan & Joel Hartter & Michael Palace, 2014. "Satellite-based rainfall data reveal a recent drying trend in central equatorial Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 263-272, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:126:y:2014:i:1:p:263-272
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1217-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. H. Saji & B. N. Goswami & P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata, 1999. "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 360-363, September.
    2. Fisher, Brendan & Christopher, Treg, 2007. "Poverty and biodiversity: Measuring the overlap of human poverty and the biodiversity hotspots," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 93-101, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frédéric Kosmowski & Antoine Leblois & Benjamin Sultan, 2016. "Perceptions of recent rainfall changes in Niger: a comparison between climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive households," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 227-241, March.
    2. Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu & Joris Van Acker & Hans Van de Vyver & Nils Bourland & José Mbifo Ndiapo & Théophile Besango Likwela & Michel Lokonda Wa Kipifo & Amand Mbuya Kankolongo & Jan Van den Bulcke &, 2023. "Ground-based climate data show evidence of warming and intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle during the 1960–2020 period in Yangambi, central Congo Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-28, October.
    3. Jonathan Salerno & Jeremy E. Diem & Bronwen L. Konecky & Joel Hartter, 2019. "Recent intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle in equatorial Africa revealed by farmer perceptions, satellite-based estimates, and ground-based station measurements," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 123-139, March.
    4. Matchaya, Greenwell C. & Tadesse, Getaw & Kuteya, Auckland N., 2022. "Rainfall shocks and crop productivity in Zambia: Implication for agricultural water risk management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).

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