IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v120y2013i1p325-340.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty, ignorance and ambiguity in crop modelling for African agricultural adaptation

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Whitfield

Abstract

Drawing on social constructivist approaches to interpreting the generation of knowledge, particularly Stirling’s (Local Environ 4(2):111–135, 1999 ) schema of incomplete knowledge, this paper looks critically at climate-crop modelling, a research discipline of growing importance within African agricultural adaptation policy. A combination of interviews with climate and crop modellers, a meta-analysis survey of crop modelling conducted as part of the CGIAR’s Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) programme in 2010, and peer-reviewed crop and climate modelling literature are analysed. Using case studies from across the crop model production chain as illustrations it is argued that, whilst increases in investment and growth of the modelling endeavour are undoubtedly improving observational data and reducing ignorance, the future of agriculture remains uncertain and ambiguous. The expansion of methodological options, assumptions about system dynamics, and divergence in model outcomes is increasing the space and need for more deliberative approaches to modelling and policy making. Participatory and deliberative approaches to science-policy are advanced in response. The discussion highlights the problem that, uncertainty and ambiguity become hidden within the growing complexity of conventional climate and crop modelling science, as such, achieving the transparency and accessibility required to democratise climate impact assessments represents a significant challenge. Suggestions are made about how these challenges might be responded to within the climate-crop modelling community. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Whitfield, 2013. "Uncertainty, ignorance and ambiguity in crop modelling for African agricultural adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 325-340, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:325-340
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0795-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-0795-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-0795-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Munang Tingem & Mike Rivington, 2009. "Adaptation for crop agriculture to climate change in Cameroon: Turning on the heat," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 153-168, February.
    2. Thornton, Philip K. & Jones, Peter G. & Alagarswamy, Gopal & Andresen, Jeff & Herrero, Mario, 2010. "Adapting to climate change: Agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 73-82, February.
    3. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    4. Maria Paola Ferretti & Vincenzo Pavone, 2009. "What do civil society organisations expect from participation in science? Lessons from Germany and Spain on the issue of GMOs," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 287-299, May.
    5. Bruna De Marchi, 2003. "Public participation and risk governance," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 171-176, June.
    6. Richard Robertson & Gerald Nelson & Timothy Thomas & Mark Rosegrant, 2013. "Incorporating Process-Based Crop Simulation Models into Global Economic Analyses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 228-235.
    7. Rob Swart & Lenny Bernstein & Minh Ha-Duong & Arthur Petersen, 2009. "Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 1-29, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Belay Kassie & Senthold Asseng & Reimund Rotter & Huib Hengsdijk & Alex Ruane & Martin Ittersum, 2015. "Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 145-158, March.
    2. Louise Beveridge & Stephen Whitfield & Andy Challinor, 2018. "Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 475-489, April.
    3. Stephen Whitfield & Sarah Chapman & Marcelin Tonye Mahop & Chetan Deva & Kennedy Masamba & Andekelile Mwamahonje, 2021. "Exploring assumptions in crop breeding for climate resilience: opportunities and principles for integrating climate model projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-18, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Webber, Heidi & Gaiser, Thomas & Ewert, Frank, 2014. "What role can crop models play in supporting climate change adaptation decisions to enhance food security in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 161-177.
    2. Giuseppe Maggio & Marina Mastrorillo & Nicholas J. Sitko, 2022. "Adapting to High Temperatures: Effect of Farm Practices and Their Adoption Duration on Total Value of Crop Production in Uganda," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 385-403, January.
    3. Anika Reetsch & Kai Schwärzel & Christina Dornack & Shadrack Stephene & Karl-Heinz Feger, 2020. "Optimising Nutrient Cycles to Improve Food Security in Smallholder Farming Families—A Case Study from Banana-Coffee-Based Farming in the Kagera Region, NW Tanzania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-34, November.
    4. Valentina Mereu & Gianluca Carboni & Andrea Gallo & Raffaello Cervigni & Donatella Spano, 2015. "Impact of climate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 321-336, September.
    5. Sally Brooks & Michael Loevinsohn, 2011. "Shaping agricultural innovation systems responsive to food insecurity and climate change," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 185-200, August.
    6. Moranga, Lawrence Ongwae & Otieno, David Jakinda & Oluoch-Kosura, Willis, 2016. "Analysis Of Factors Influencing Tomato Farmers’ Willingness To Adopt Innovative Timing Approaches For Management Of Climate Change Effects In Taita Taveta County, Kenya," Dissertations and Theses 269270, University of Nairobi, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    7. Khanal, Uttam & Wilson, Clevo & Hoang, Vincent & Lee, Boon, 2015. "Autonomous adaptations to climate change and rice productivity: a case study of the Tanahun district, Nepal," MPRA Paper 106916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Milgroom, J. & Giller, K.E., 2013. "Courting the rain: Rethinking seasonality and adaptation to recurrent drought in semi-arid southern Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 91-104.
    9. Ignaciuk, A. & Maggio, G. & Mastrorillo, M. & Sitko, N., 2021. "Adapting to high temperatures: evidence on the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices in Uganda," ESA Working Papers 309364, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    10. Lazzaroni, S. & Bedi, A.S., 2014. "Weather variability and food consumption," ISS Working Papers - General Series 51272, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    11. Kahsay, Goytom Abraha & Hansen, Lars Gårn, 2016. "The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 54-64.
    12. Sangam Shrestha & Proloy Deb & Thi Bui, 2016. "Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 15-37, January.
    13. Sauer, Johannes & Finger, Robert, 2014. "Climate Risk Management Strategies in Agriculture – The Case of Flood Risk," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 172679, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Silvia Silvestri & Martin Macharia & Bellancile Uzayisenga, 2019. "Analysing the potential of plant clinics to boost crop protection in Rwanda through adoption of IPM: the case of maize and maize stem borers," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(2), pages 301-315, April.
    15. Belay Kassie & Senthold Asseng & Reimund Rotter & Huib Hengsdijk & Alex Ruane & Martin Ittersum, 2015. "Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 145-158, March.
    16. Wichern, Jannike & Descheemaeker, Katrien & Giller, Ken E. & Ebanyat, Peter & Taulya, Godfrey & van Wijk, Mark T., 2019. "Vulnerability and adaptation options to climate change for rural livelihoods – A country-wide analysis for Uganda," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    17. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    18. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    19. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    20. Vermaak, Herman Jacobus & Kusakana, Kanzumba & Koko, Sandile Philip, 2014. "Status of micro-hydrokinetic river technology in rural applications: A review of literature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 625-633.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:325-340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.