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The importance of record length in estimating the magnitude of climatic changes: an example using 175 years of lake ice-out dates in New England

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  • Glenn Hodgkins

Abstract

Many studies have shown that lake ice-out (break-up) dates in the Northern Hemisphere are useful indicators of late winter/early spring climate change. Trends in lake ice-out dates in New England, USA, were analyzed for 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, and 175 year periods ending in 2008. More than 100 years of ice-out data were available for 19 of the 28 lakes in this study. The magnitude of trends over time depends on the length of the period considered. For the recent 25-year period, there was a mix of earlier and later ice-out dates. Lake ice-outs during the last 50 years became earlier by 1.8 days/decade (median change for all lakes with adequate data). This is a much higher rate than for longer historical periods; ice-outs became earlier by 0.6 days/decade during the last 75 years, 0.4 days/decade during the last 100 years, and 0.6 days/decade during the last 125 years. The significance of trends was assessed under the assumption of serial independence of historical ice-out dates and under the assumption of short and long term persistence. Hypolimnion dissolved oxygen (DO) levels are an important factor in lake eutrophication and coldwater fish survival. Based on historical data available at three lakes, 32 to 46 % of the interannual variability of late summer hypolimnion DO levels was related to ice-out dates; earlier ice-outs were associated with lower DO levels. Copyright U.S. Government 2013

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  • Glenn Hodgkins, 2013. "The importance of record length in estimating the magnitude of climatic changes: an example using 175 years of lake ice-out dates in New England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 705-718, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:3:p:705-718
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0766-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard A. Betts, 2000. "Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6809), pages 187-190, November.
    2. Raphael Sagarin, 2001. "False estimates of the advance of spring," Nature, Nature, vol. 414(6864), pages 600-600, December.
    3. Barbara Benson & John Magnuson & Olaf Jensen & Virginia Card & Glenn Hodgkins & Johanna Korhonen & David Livingstone & Kenton Stewart & Gesa Weyhenmeyer & Nick Granin, 2012. "Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 299-323, May.
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    1. Anna-Maria Soja & Károly Kutics & Karl Maracek & Gábor Molnár & Gerhard Soja, 2014. "Changes in ice phenology characteristics of two Central European steppe lakes from 1926 to 2012 - influences of local weather and large scale oscillation patterns," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 119-133, September.
    2. Matthew D. Miller, 2025. "Local scale climate change variability in New England, United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Andrew W. Ellis & Timothy R. Greene, 2019. "Synoptic climate evidence of a late-twentieth century change to earlier spring ice-out on Maine Lakes, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 323-339, April.

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