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Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • E. Schuur
  • B. Abbott
  • W. Bowden
  • V. Brovkin
  • P. Camill
  • J. Canadell
  • J. Chanton
  • F. Chapin
  • T. Christensen
  • P. Ciais
  • B. Crosby
  • C. Czimczik
  • G. Grosse
  • J. Harden
  • D. Hayes
  • G. Hugelius
  • J. Jastrow
  • J. Jones
  • T. Kleinen
  • C. Koven
  • G. Krinner
  • P. Kuhry
  • D. Lawrence
  • A. McGuire
  • S. Natali
  • J. O’Donnell
  • C. Ping
  • W. Riley
  • A. Rinke
  • V. Romanovsky
  • A. Sannel
  • C. Schädel
  • K. Schaefer
  • J. Sky
  • Z. Subin
  • C. Tarnocai
  • M. Turetsky
  • M. Waldrop
  • K. Walter Anthony
  • K. Wickland
  • C. Wilson
  • S. Zimov

Abstract

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO 2 equivalent using 100-year CH 4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH 4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH 4 even though CH 4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • E. Schuur & B. Abbott & W. Bowden & V. Brovkin & P. Camill & J. Canadell & J. Chanton & F. Chapin & T. Christensen & P. Ciais & B. Crosby & C. Czimczik & G. Grosse & J. Harden & D. Hayes & G. Hugelius, 2013. "Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 359-374, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:2:p:359-374
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Louise Kessler, 2017. "Estimating The Economic Impact Of The Permafrost Carbon Feedback," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Louise Kessler, 2015. "Estimating the economic impact of the permafrost carbon feedback," GRI Working Papers 219, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    3. Brock, William A. & Engström, Gustav & Grass, Dieter & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2013. "Energy balance climate models and general equilibrium optimal mitigation policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2371-2396.
    4. R. Macdonald & Z. Kuzyk & S. Johannessen, 2015. "It is not just about the ice: a geochemical perspective on the changing Arctic Ocean," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(3), pages 288-301, September.
    5. Rafael Gonçalves-Araujo & Benjamin Rabe & Ilka Peeken & Astrid Bracher, 2018. "High colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption in surface waters of the central-eastern Arctic Ocean: Implications for biogeochemistry and ocean color algorithms," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, January.
    6. Margaret S. Torn & Rose Z. Abramoff & Lydia J. S. Vaughn & Oriana E. Chafe & J. Bryan Curtis & Biao Zhu, 2025. "Large emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.

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