Individual forecasting behavior
Participants of a laboratory experiment judgmentally forecast a time series. In order to support their forecasts they are given a highly correlated indicator with a constant lead period of one. The subjects are not given any other information than the time series realizations and have to base their forecasts on pure eyeballing/chart-reading. Standard economic models do not appropriately account for the features of individual forecasts: These are typically affected by intra- and inter-individual instability of behavior. We extend the scheme theory by Otwin Becker for the explanation of individual forecasts by simple schemes based on visually perceived characteristics of the time series. We find that the forecasts of most subjects can be explained very accurately by only a few schemes. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2009
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 17 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Web page: http://www.fhi.sk/ssov
Web page: http://www.mot.org.hu/index_en.html
Web page: http://nb.vse.cz/csov/english.htm
Web page: http://www.oegor.at/
Web page: http://hdoi.hr/en_US/en/
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/business/operations+research/journal/10100|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Becker, Otwin & Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2007. "Heuristic modeling of expectation formation in a complex experimental information environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 975-985, January.
- Cavaglia, Stefano & Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1993. "Further evidence on exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 78-98, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:17:y:2009:i:1:p:65-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.