IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/astaws/v8y2014i1p49-79.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modell, Annahmen und Ergebnisse einer nach Migrationshintergrund differenzierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung für Bayern bis 2022

Author

Listed:
  • Kristin Woltering

Abstract

Population projections quantify the changes in size and composition of a population that would occur if recent demographic trends were to continue into the future. This essay presents the model, the underlying assumptions, and the results of a projection of the Bavarian population differentiated by its immigrant background. The population with immigrant background does not only comprise residing aliens but also ethnic German immigrants and naturalised Germans plus their respective German children. The adopted model is based on the cohort component method. The considered demographic components are fertility, mortality, migration and the change between sub-populations, either by birth or by naturalisation. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Kristin Woltering, 2014. "Modell, Annahmen und Ergebnisse einer nach Migrationshintergrund differenzierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung für Bayern bis 2022," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(1), pages 49-79, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:8:y:2014:i:1:p:49-79
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-014-0139-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11943-014-0139-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11943-014-0139-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joop Garssen & Han Nicolaas, 2008. "Fertility of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands: Adjustment to native level within one generation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(33), pages 1249-1280.
    2. Eckart Bomsdorf, 2008. "Higher participation rates for women and a retirement age of 67 as could stabilise the labour supply - model computations for Germany to 2050," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(13), pages 11-21, July.
    3. Nadja Milewski, 2007. "First child of immigrant workers and their descendants in West Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(29), pages 859-896.
    4. Erika Schulz, 2008. "Weniger Menschen, aber Arbeitskräfteangebot bleibt bis 2025 stabil," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(40), pages 596-602.
    5. Erika Schulz, 2004. "Bevölkerungsentwicklung in West- und Ostdeutschland: Vorausschätzung bis 2050," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(33), pages 471-485.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ralf Münnich, 2014. "Vorwort des Herausgebers," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(1), pages 1-4, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nadja Milewski, 2010. "Immigrant fertility in West Germany: Is there a socialization effect in transitions to second and third births? [Fécondité des immigrées en Allemagne de l’Ouest: existe-t-il un effet de la socializ," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 297-323, August.
    2. Ben Wilson, 2020. "Understanding How Immigrant Fertility Differentials Vary over the Reproductive Life Course," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 465-498, July.
    3. Helen Baykara-Krumme & Nadja Milewski, 2017. "Fertility Patterns Among Turkish Women in Turkey and Abroad: The Effects of International Mobility, Migrant Generation, and Family Background," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 409-436, July.
    4. Nadja Milewski & Helen Baykara-Krumme, 2023. "Fertility Behavior of Turkish Migrant Men in Europe Compared to Stayers at Origin," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 115-136, March.
    5. Gunnar Andersson & Lotta Persson & Ognjen Obućina, 2017. "Depressed fertility among descendants of immigrants in Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(39), pages 1149-1184.
    6. Amparo González-Ferrer & Teresa Castro Martín & Elisabeth Kraus & Tatiana Eremenko, 2017. "Childbearing patterns among immigrant women and their daughters in Spain: Over-adaptation or structural constraints," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(19), pages 599-634.
    7. Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Liili Abuladze & Luule Sakkeus & Sergei Zakharov, 2017. "Childbearing among first- and second-generation Russians in Estonia against the background of the sending and host countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(41), pages 1209-1254.
    8. Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Tiit Tammaru, 2023. "Neighbourhoods and Workplaces: Are They Related to the Fertility of Immigrants and Their Descendants? A Register-Based Study of Finland, 1999–2014," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 209-231, March.
    9. Hill Kulu & Amparo González-Ferrer, 2014. "Family Dynamics Among Immigrants and Their Descendants in Europe: Current Research and Opportunities," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 411-435, November.
    10. Eleonora Mussino & Salvatore Strozza, 2012. "Does Citizenship Still Matter? Second Birth Risks of Migrants from Albania, Morocco, and Romania in Italy [La citoyenneté compte-t-elle encore? Les probabilités d’une deuxième naissance pour les mi," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 269-302, August.
    11. Alícia Adserà & Ana Ferrer, 2016. "The Fertility of Married Immigrant Women to Canada," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 475-505, June.
    12. Ariane Pailhé, 2017. "The convergence of second-generation immigrants' fertility patterns in France: The role of sociocultural distance between parents' and host country," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(45), pages 1361-1398.
    13. Marianne Tønnessen, 2020. "Declined Total Fertility Rate Among Immigrants and the Role of Newly Arrived Women in Norway," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 547-573, July.
    14. Marianne Tønnessen & Ben Wilson, 2023. "Visualising Immigrant Fertility -- Profiles of Childbearing and their Implications for Migration Research," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 23-46, March.
    15. David P. Lindstrom & Silvia E. Giorguli-Saucedo, 2007. "The interrelationship of fertility, family maintenance and Mexico-U.S. Migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(28), pages 821-858.
    16. Lisa Van Landschoot & Helga de Valk & Jan Van Bavel, 2017. "Fertility among descendants of immigrants in Belgium: The role of the partner," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(60), pages 1827-1858.
    17. Sieds, 2012. "Complete Volume LXVI n.1 2012," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 66(1), pages 1-296.
    18. Chenoa A. Flippen & Rebecca A. Schut, 2022. "Migration and Contraception among Mexican Women: Assessing Selection, Disruption, and Adaptation," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(2), pages 495-520, April.
    19. Francesca Decimo, 2021. "The Transnational Making of Population: Migration, Marriage and Fertility Between Morocco and Italy," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 289-310, March.
    20. Eleonora Mussino & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno & Salvatore Strozza & Laura Terzera, 2015. "Motherhood of foreign women in Lombardy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(23), pages 653-664.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bevölkerung; Vorausberechnung; Migrationshintergrund; C10; J11; Population; Projection; Immigrant Background;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:8:y:2014:i:1:p:49-79. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.