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Wie gut können wir die Folgen des demographischen Wandels abschätzen? Was ist sicher? Wozu brauchen wir bessere Daten?

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  • Axel Börsch-Supan

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Abstract

Demographic change in Germany, as one of the megatrends of the 21st century, is a well-known fact which will, without a doubt, profoundly change the country’s social and economic situation and challenge our whole economic system. Spurred by statements by press and political representatives, demographic change is widely regarded as a menace and mere cost factor across the population. But this point of view disregards that the fact that people are becoming increasingly older can serve as a solution to many of the looming problems as well. A properly functioning health care system can lead to longer working lives which can in turn ensure a sustainable funding of the welfare system. The counter-argument of lacking health of the elderly does not seem to conform to the empirical evidence. A consequent implementation of needed reforms can make up for the negative impacts of demographic change and render it a chance rather than a menace. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Axel Börsch-Supan, 2012. "Wie gut können wir die Folgen des demographischen Wandels abschätzen? Was ist sicher? Wozu brauchen wir bessere Daten?," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 6(1), pages 65-82, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:6:y:2012:i:1:p:65-82 DOI: 10.1007/s11943-012-0120-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berkel, Barbara & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Pension reform in Germany : the impact on retirement decisions," Papers 04-62, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    2. Axel Börsch-Supan & Barbara Berkel, 2004. "Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions," MEA discussion paper series 04062, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    3. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch-Supan, 2004. "Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 393-393, September.
    4. Oliver Lipps & Frank Betz, 2003. "Stochastische Bevölkerungsprognose für West- und Ostdeutschland," MEA discussion paper series 03041, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographischer Wandel; Gesundheitswesen; Sozialsysteme; Prognosemodell; E27; H55; J11; Demographic change; Health care system; Welfare system; Forecasting model;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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