IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sgh/gosnar/y2026i1p5-22.html

Estimation of the Personal Income Tax (PIT) Gap in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Tomasz Tratkiewicz
  • Mehmet Burak Turgut

Abstract

The literature on estimating the tax gap in direct taxes generally emphasises that using a bottom-up method produces much better results than using a top-down method. The existing methods of estimating the PIT gap using the bottom-up approach rarely take advantage of risk-based audits, which can be successfully used when tax gap estimation based on random audits cannot be applied. An important issue with risk-based audits is the potential selection bias. To address this issue, we use the Heckman selection model. We estimate the size of the PIT gap in Poland in 2017 by using data from the tax filings of taxpayers earning income from business activities taxed at a flat 19‑percent tax rate and risk-based audits. Our findings show that the predicted PIT gap corresponds to 4.5 percent of the total tax liability of this group of taxpayers. We also identify the regions and sectors with the highest predicted PIT gap per taxpayer. Our results show that the Heckman model can be used as a tool by tax authorities to improve the efficiency of risk-based audits.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Tratkiewicz & Mehmet Burak Turgut, 2026. "Estimation of the Personal Income Tax (PIT) Gap in Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 5-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2026:i:1:p:5-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://gnpje.sgh.waw.pl/pdf-214918-138096
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio Estache & Atsushi Iimi, 2011. "Bidders´entry and auctioneer´s rejection: Applying a double selection model to road procurement auctions," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 14, pages 199-223, November.
    2. Gemmell, Norman & Hasseldine, John, 2012. "The Tax Gap: A Methodological Review," Working Paper Series 18717, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    3. Naomi E. Feldman & Joel Slemrod, 2007. "Estimating tax noncompliance with evidence from unaudited tax returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 327-352, March.
    4. Gemmell, Norman & Hasseldine, John, 2012. "The Tax Gap: A Methodological Review," Working Paper Series 2435, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    5. Merike Kukk & Alari Paulus & Karsten Staehr, 2020. "Cheating in Europe: underreporting of self-employment income in comparative perspective," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 363-390, April.
    6. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    7. Joel Slemrod, 2007. "Cheating Ourselves: The Economics of Tax Evasion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 25-48, Winter.
    8. Feige, Edgar L., 1990. "Defining and estimating underground and informal economies: The new institutional economics approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(7), pages 989-1002, July.
    9. Antonio Estache & Atsushi Iimi, 2011. "Bidders' Entry and Auctioneer's Rejection: Applying a Double Selection Model to Road Procurement Auctions," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 199-223, November.
    10. Slemrod, Joel & Blumenthal, Marsha & Christian, Charles, 2001. "Taxpayer response to an increased probability of audit: evidence from a controlled experiment in Minnesota," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 455-483, March.
    11. Marra, Giampiero & Radice, Rosalba, 2013. "Estimation of a regression spline sample selection model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 158-173.
    12. S. Trevis Certo & John R. Busenbark & Hyun‐soo Woo & Matthew Semadeni, 2016. "Sample selection bias and Heckman models in strategic management research," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(13), pages 2639-2657, December.
    13. Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Martin B. Knudsen & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Søren Pedersen & Emmanuel Saez, 2011. "Unwilling or Unable to Cheat? Evidence From a Tax Audit Experiment in Denmark," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 651-692, May.
    14. Feinstein, Jonathan S, 1999. "Approaches for Estimating Noncompliance: Examples from Federal Taxation in the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 360-369, June.
    15. James Heckman, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    16. Pissarides, Christopher A. & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "An expenditure-based estimate of Britain's black economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 17-32, June.
    17. Mehmet Burak Turgut & Tomasz Tratkiewicz, 2023. "Estimate of the Underground Economy in Poland Based on Household Expenditures and Incomes," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 15(1), pages 1-29, March.
    18. Ana Cinta G. Cabral & Norman Gemmell & Nazila Alinaghi, 2021. "Are survey-based self-employment income underreporting estimates biased? New evidence from matched register and survey data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 284-322, April.
    19. Marcelo Bérgolo & Rodrigo Ceni & Guillermo Cruces & Matias Giaccobasso & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2018. "Misperceptions about Tax Audits," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 83-87, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thorben C. Kundt & Florian Misch & Birger Nerré, 2017. "Re-assessing the merits of measuring tax evasion through business surveys: an application of the crosswise model," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(1), pages 112-133, February.
    2. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ana Cinta G. Cabral & Norman Gemmell & Nazila Alinaghi, 2021. "Are survey-based self-employment income underreporting estimates biased? New evidence from matched register and survey data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(2), pages 284-322, April.
    4. Cabral, Ana Cinta G. & Gemmell, Norman, 2018. "Estimating Self-Employment Income-Gaps from Register and Survey Data: Evidence for New Zealand," Working Paper Series 7625, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    5. Figari, Francesco & Bazzoli, Martina & Di Caro, Paolo & V. Fiorio, Carlo & Manzo, Marco, 2020. "Size, heterogeneity and distributional effects of self-employment income tax evasion in Italy," EUROMOD Working Papers EM18/20, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Felix Schmutz, 2016. "Measuring the Invisible: An Overview of and Outlook for Tax Non-Compliance Estimates and Measurement Methods for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 152(2), pages 125-177, April.
    7. Joel Slemrod & Caroline Weber, 2012. "Evidence of the invisible: toward a credibility revolution in the empirical analysis of tax evasion and the informal economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 25-53, February.
    8. Gavoille, Nicolas & Zasova, Anna, 2023. "What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    9. Bjørkheim, Julie Brun & Nygård, Odd E., 2024. "Gender Differences in Tax Evasion: Evidence from Norwegian Administrative Data," Discussion Papers 2024/8, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    10. James Alm, 2019. "What Motivates Tax Compliance?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 353-388, April.
    11. Niizeki, Takeshi & Hamaaki, Junya, 2023. "Do the self-employed underreport their income? Evidence from Japanese panel data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Konstantīns Beņkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva, 2025. "Chasing the shadow: unreported wage payments and income inequality," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 23(4), pages 1089-1120, December.
    13. Cabral, Ana Cinta G. & Gemmell, Norman, 2018. "Estimating Self-Employment Income-Gaps from Register and Survey Data: Evidence for New Zealand," Working Paper Series 20833, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    14. Zsófia L. Bárány, 2017. "Taxation and self-employment," LIS Working papers 723, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    15. George Hondroyiannis & Dimitrios Papaoikonomou, 2018. "Fiscal structural reforms: the effect of card payments on vat revenue in the euro area," Working Papers 249, Bank of Greece.
    16. Nikolaos Artavanis & Adair Morse & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2015. "Tax Evasion across Industries: Soft Credit Evidence from Greece," NBER Working Papers 21552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2hpm2pgsb78r2a2lh6ahev49mj is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Sara LaLumia & James Sallee, 2013. "The value of honesty: empirical estimates from the case of the missing children," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(2), pages 192-224, April.
    19. Odd E Nygård & Joel Slemrod & Thor O Thoresen, 2019. "Distributional Implications of Joint Tax Evasion," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(620), pages 1894-1923.
    20. Waseem, Mazhar, 2023. "Overclaimed refunds, undeclared sales, and invoice mills: Nature and extent of noncompliance in a value-added tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    21. Hebous, Shafik & Jia, Zhiyang & Løyland, Knut & Thoresen, Thor O. & Øvrum, Arnstein, 2023. "Do Audits Improve Future Tax Compliance in the Absence of Penalties? Evidence from Random Audits in Norway," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 305-326.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2026:i:1:p:5-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Grzegorz Konat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgwawpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.