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Modele predykcji bankructwa i ich zastosowanie dla rynku NewConnect

Author

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  • Łukasz Postek
  • Michał Thor

Abstract

Niniejsza praca podejmuje problematykę modelowania bankructwa spółek notowanych na rynku NewConnect. Dokonano przeglądu prac empirycznych związanych z predykcją upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce i za pomocą regresji logistycznej zbudowano modele przewidujące bankructwa spółek notowanych na rynku NewConnect w rocznym horyzoncie czasowym. Brak odporności uzyskanych oszacowań podaje w wątpliwość istnienie stabilnej i monotonicznej relacji pomiędzy wskaźnikami finansowymi a prawdopodobieństwem bankructwa na NewConnect. Równocześnie zarówno oszacowane modele, jak i najpopularniejsze polskie modele predykcji bankructwa cechują się brakiem zdolności prognostycznych out-of-sample. Mimo to modele predykcji bankructwa okazują się być potencjalnie przydatne w wyborze celów inwestycyjnych i ustaleniu wag poszczególnych akcji w portfelu inwestycyjnym – portfele skonstruowane na podstawie modeli oszacowanych w niniejszej pracy oraz najpopularniejsze polskie modele predykcji bankructwa cechują się wyższą stopą zwrotu niż portfel z równymi wagami dla wszystkich spółek.

Suggested Citation

  • Łukasz Postek & Michał Thor, 2020. "Modele predykcji bankructwa i ich zastosowanie dla rynku NewConnect," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 109-137.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2020:i:1:p:109-137
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    logit; prognozowanie bankructwa; NewConnect; portfel inwestycyjny;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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