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Explaining COVID-19 contagion in Portuguese municipalities using spatial autocorrelation models

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  • Mourao, Paulo
  • Bento, Ricardo

Abstract

This paper investigates the pattern of COVID-19 contagion in Portuguese municipalities from March 23rd to April 5th (the exponential phase). We have recurred to spatial autocorrelation models to discuss how the conglomeration of highly infectious spaces has also contributed to infecting neighbouring municipalities. We have used several indicators for the contagion of COVID-19 from the number of infectious individuals to rates of infectious. As explicative variables, additionally to spatial proximity, we also considered population density, the share of the elderly population as well as the length of municipal perimeter/border. Our results show that highly dense municipalities tended to contaminate close areas. Lengthier perimeters also showed a positive effect on the contagious indicators for a given municipality.

Suggested Citation

  • Mourao, Paulo & Bento, Ricardo, 2021. "Explaining COVID-19 contagion in Portuguese municipalities using spatial autocorrelation models," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 30(1), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:sdo:regaec:v:30:y:2021:i:1_4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Rama Cont & Artur Kotlicki & Renyuan Xu, 2020. "Modelling COVID-19 contagion: risk assessment and targeted mitigation policies," Working Papers hal-02923033, HAL.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; WTO notification; International trade.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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