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Планирование функционирования предприятия в условиях риска и неопределенности во внешней и внутренней среде. Enterprise operation planning in the conditions of risk and uncertainty in the external and internal environment

Author

Listed:
  • Титов В. В.

    (Новосибирский государственный университет)

  • Безмельницын Д. А.
  • Напреева С. К.

Abstract

Оптимизация планирования деятельности предприятия с учетом риска и неопределенности внешней и внутренней среды представляется сложной научно-методологической проблемой. Ее решение важно для практики планирования. Поэтому актуальность данной темы исследований не вызывает сомнений. Планирование основано на использовании многоуровневой системы моделей. На верхнем уровне достижение ключевых стратегических показателей обеспечивается разработкой и внедрением нововведений, в основном связанных с планированием выпуска новой высокотехнологичной продукции. Однако именно на этом уровне в наибольшей степени возникает влияние рисков и неопределенности на процессы планирования разработки, производства и реализации новой продукции. В научной литературе предлагается использовать для этой цели стохастические графы с возвратами. Эта идея поддерживается и в этой работе. Однако реализация такой идеи требует дополнительных методологических и методических разработок, проведения количественных расчетов. Согласование стратегических решений с тактическими планами основано на идее устранения экономических и других рисков, связанных с хозяйственной деятельностью предприятия в тактическом планировании, за счет создания стохастических резервов на основе реализации дополнительных нововведений, обеспечивающих получение сверхплановых объемов продаж, прибыли и других показателей стратегического плана. Организация оперативного управления производством представляется итеративным, скользящим процессом (уменьшающим риски в производстве), реализуемым с учетом ограничений тактического управления. Optimization of the enterprise activity planning taking into account the risk and uncertainty of the external and internal environment is a complex scientific and methodological problem. Its solution is important for the planning practice. Therefore, the relevance of this research topic is beyond doubt. Planning is based on the use of a multilevel system of models. At the top level, the achievement of key strategic indicators is ensured by the development and implementation of innovations, mainly related to the planning of the release of new high-tech products. However, it is at this level that the risks and uncertainties have the greatest impact on the planning processes for the development, production and marketing of new products. In the scientific literature it is proposed to use the stochastic graphs with returns for this purpose. This idea is also supported in this work. However, the implementation of such an idea requires additional methodological developments and quantitative calculations. The coordination of strategic decisions with tactical plans is based on the idea of eliminating the economic and other risks associated with the economic activity of the enterprise in tactical planning, by creating the stochastic reserves based on the implementation of additional innovations that ensure the receipt of above-target sales volumes, profits and other indicators of the strategic plan. The organization of operational management of production is represented by an iterative, sliding process (reducing risks in production), which is realized taking into account the limitations of tactical control.

Suggested Citation

  • Титов В. В. & Безмельницын Д. А. & Напреева С. К., 2017. "Планирование функционирования предприятия в условиях риска и неопределенности во внешней и внутренней среде. Enterprise operation planning in the conditions of risk and uncertainty in the external and," Мир экономики и управления // Вестник НГУ. Cерия: Cоциально-экономические науки, Socionet;Новосибирский государственный университет, vol. 17(3), pages 179-191.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:guhrje:2017_3_14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
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