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Total, Direct, and Indirect Effects in Logit and Probit Models

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  • Richard Breen
  • Kristian Bernt Karlson
  • Anders Holm

Abstract

This article presents a method for estimating and interpreting total, direct, and indirect effects in logit or probit models. The method extends the decomposition properties of linear models to these models; it closes the much-discussed gap between results based on the “difference in coefficients†method and the “product of coefficients†method in mediation analysis involving nonlinear probability models models; it reports effects measured on both the logit or probit scale and the probability scale; and it identifies causal mediation effects under the sequential ignorability assumption. We also show that while our method is computationally simpler than other methods, it always performs as well as, or better than, these methods. Further derivations suggest a hitherto unrecognized issue in identifying heterogeneous mediation effects in nonlinear probability models. We conclude the article with an application of our method to data from the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Breen & Kristian Bernt Karlson & Anders Holm, 2013. "Total, Direct, and Indirect Effects in Logit and Probit Models," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 42(2), pages 164-191, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:42:y:2013:i:2:p:164-191
    DOI: 10.1177/0049124113494572
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April.
    2. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts," NBER Working Papers 6385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cramer,J. S., 2011. "Logit Models from Economics and Other Fields," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521188036, January.
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