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Effects of Closures and Openings on Public Health in the Time of COVID-19: A Cross-Country and Temporal Trend Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Long Chu
  • R. Quentin Grafton
  • Tom Kompas
  • Mary-Louise McLaws

Abstract

Many countries mandated social distancing measures during the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 to 2022 that variously included opening hours restrictions on hospitality and retail, economy-wide closures, and additional international border controls. We analyzed whether more restrictive (hereafter, closures) or less restrictive (hereafter, openings) social distancing measures changed the short-term trends in the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and ICU patients in Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Our analysis uses a “before-and-after†trend analysis (decremental/incremental and growth/decay trends) to compare the trends of epidemic indicators before and after each closure or opening event. Results show that, in general, and for these three countries: (a) closures resulted in reduced trend growth in adverse COVID-19 public health outcomes and (b) openings resulted in increased trend growth for the three selected measures of public health.

Suggested Citation

  • Long Chu & R. Quentin Grafton & Tom Kompas & Mary-Louise McLaws, 2023. "Effects of Closures and Openings on Public Health in the Time of COVID-19: A Cross-Country and Temporal Trend Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:13:y:2023:i:4:p:21582440231207472
    DOI: 10.1177/21582440231207472
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dyani Lewis, 2022. "What scientists have learnt from COVID lockdowns," Nature, Nature, vol. 609(7926), pages 236-239, September.
    2. Tom Kompas & R Quentin Grafton & Tuong Nhu Che & Long Chu & James Camac, 2021. "Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Mark J Siedner & Guy Harling & Zahra Reynolds & Rebecca F Gilbert & Sebastien Haneuse & Atheendar S Venkataramani & Alexander C Tsai, 2020. "Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic: Longitudinal pretest–posttest comparison group study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(8), pages 1-12, August.
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