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Belief reliability modeling and its accelerated model verification design method: a case for the three-grid ion thruster

Author

Listed:
  • Bo-Yuan Li
  • Xiao-Yang Li
  • Shi-Shun Chen
  • Yan-Hui Jia
  • Rui Kang

Abstract

Reliability modeling for long-life complex aerospace products is important in engineering practice, especially for their design, production, and usage. However, the model verification by testing is generally difficult to conduct due to the long lifetime of the products. In this work, the belief reliability modeling and its accelerated model verification design method is proposed, and a case of the three-grid ion thruster for deep space exploration is studied. For the belief reliability modeling, the physical models of the thrusters considering performance degradation and multi-source epistemic uncertainties are constructed, integrating multidisciplinary knowledge. Further, a controlled-accelerated degradation testing can be rationally designed to verify the established models in a shortened duration. Finally, the illustration of the three-grid ion thruster shows the feasibility of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo-Yuan Li & Xiao-Yang Li & Shi-Shun Chen & Yan-Hui Jia & Rui Kang, 2025. "Belief reliability modeling and its accelerated model verification design method: a case for the three-grid ion thruster," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 239(6), pages 1568-1585, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:239:y:2025:i:6:p:1568-1585
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X251321271
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Yanfu & Zio, Enrico, 2012. "Uncertainty analysis of the adequacy assessment model of a distributed generation system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 235-244.
    2. Liu, Zhe & Li, Xiaoyang & Kang, Rui, 2022. "Uncertain differential equation based accelerated degradation modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    3. Songlin Nie & Yixuan Song & Zhonghai Ma & Fanglong Yin & Hui Ji, 2023. "Reliability assessment of PEEK/17-4PH stainless steel tribopair under seawater lubrication," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(1), pages 29-39, February.
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