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Why do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Pass in State Elections?

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  • James Alm

    (Georgia State University)

  • Mark Skidmore

    (University of Wisconsin-Whitewater)

Abstract

This article uses information on the actual conditions in all states over the extended period 1978 to 1990 to estimate the probability of tax and expenditure limitation (TEL) passage in state elections. This probability is a function of economic, fiscal, demographic, and political factors in the state, as well as specific features of the TEL; these variables are chosen to measure demand-side and supply-side features of the political process in the state. The estimation procedures use maximum likelihood techniques; a special feature of the estimation is correction for the sample selection bias that may occur with standard probit estimation because a threshold set of conditions must exist before any limitation is even placed on a statewide ballot and a voting outcome is actually observed. The results show that increases in both property taxation and local revenues relative to state revenues increase the probability of TEL passage; however, increases in total state tax revenues are associated with a lower likelihood of TEL passage. Furthermore, changes in income and in the tax price of state and local public services are important determinants of TEL passage over time. Specific features of a limitation do not generally affect passage probabilities, although a state that has already imposed a limitation is less likely to do so again. Political and demographic features of the state also have little impact on TEL outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • James Alm & Mark Skidmore, 1999. "Why do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Pass in State Elections?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 27(5), pages 481-510, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:27:y:1999:i:5:p:481-510
    DOI: 10.1177/109114219902700502
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel R Mullins, 2010. "Fiscal Limitations on Local Choice: The Imposition and Effects of Local Government Tax and Expenditure Limitations," Chapters, in: Sally Wallace (ed.), State and Local Fiscal Policy, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Samuel H. Baker, 2005. "Why Executive Power Centralizes Government," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(6), pages 747-766, November.
    3. Benedict S. Jimenez, 2017. "Institutional Constraints, Rule-Following, and Circumvention: Tax and Expenditure Limits and the Choice of Fiscal Tools During a Budget Crisis," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 5-34, June.
    4. Raúl Alberto Ponce Rodríguez, 2009. "Political institutions and tax rate initiatives," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 65-94, November.
    5. James M. Poterba, 1996. "Do Budget Rules Work?," NBER Working Papers 5550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael S. Hayes, 2015. "The Differential Effect of the No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) on States’ Contributions to Education Funding in States with Binding School District Tax and Expenditure Limitations," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 49-72, March.
    7. Leah Brooks & Yosh Halberstam & Justin Phillips, 2016. "Spending Within Limits: Evidence From Municipal Fiscal Restraints," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 69(2), pages 315-352, June.
    8. Mark Skidmore & Chad Cotti & James Alm, 2013. "The Political Economy of State Government Subsidy Adoption: The Case of Ethanol," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 162-180, July.
    9. Blankenau, William & Skidmore, Mark, 2002. "The Relationship Between Education Finance Reform and Tax and Expenditure Limitations," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-18.
    10. Thomas A. Husted & Lawrence W. Kenny, 2007. "Explanations for States Adopting Limits on Educational Spending," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(5), pages 586-605, September.
    11. Deborah A. Carroll, 2005. "Are State Governments Prepared for Fiscal Crises? A Look at Revenue Diversification during the 1990s," Public Finance Review, , vol. 33(5), pages 603-633, September.

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